# US x Cuba economic deal by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-x-cuba-economic-deal
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.064Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $47

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 14¢ | +1pp | $47 | polymarket | /markets/us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-0xe34380896d3df2ac2fcd753a01b3a8887acc335778c11e93af952fd273fca7fb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 34 |
| 2026-04-25 | 31 |
| 2026-05-02 | 17 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the United States and Cuba will reach an economic deal by a specified deadline. The 17% level suggests traders view a near-term agreement as unlikely given the historical tensions and competing political priorities in both countries. The probability would shift primarily based on changes in US administration policy toward Cuba, signals from Cuban leadership about willingness to negotiate, and whether Congress removes restrictions on US-Cuba trade. Any high-level diplomatic engagement or public statements from either government indicating serious negotiations would likely move this probability significantly. The timing of the next US presidential administration and their stated position on Cuba relations represents a key uncertainty factor, as does the current status of Congressional restrictions on normalization efforts.

### Key factors

- Current US trade embargo remains in place with no recent signals of imminent policy reversal from the sitting administration
- Cuban economic conditions and leadership stability, including the June 30 probability of Díaz-Canel remaining in power (19%), may affect negotiating capacity or willingness
- Congressional approval would likely be required for major economic normalization, adding a procedural barrier beyond executive negotiation
- Recent pattern of US-Cuba relations shows limited diplomatic momentum compared to 2014-2017 normalization period
- Market volume on related Cuba contracts is relatively low, suggesting limited trader conviction and potential for sharp probability moves on new information

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-x-cuba-economic-deal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=us-x-cuba-economic-deal

## License

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