# US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...

> June 30 leads at 77%, runner-up 55% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.076Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-15

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 77%
- Runner-up: May 31 at 55%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $327K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 77¢ | −3pp | $53K | polymarket | /markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-polymarket-0x6fa13f31cceaf10ed3190df6e2aca0a93ab0d6fb46fd279003f17d4cdccee164 |
| May 31 | 55¢ | ±0 | $82K | polymarket | /markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-polymarket-0x2bef40a1f62d045527228e699990d1bd1f97906b2458a6f3e4a0daf11124060c |
| May 15 | 25¢ | −6pp | $192K | polymarket | /markets/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-15-polymarket-0x70d706fe084905dbafb95dfff13b727e4073efc3ef590adc8330562bac5d26de |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | May 31 | May 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 72 | 48 | 25 |
| 2026-05-07 | 74 | 51 | 20 |
| 2026-05-08 | 71 | 51 | 14 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · May 15 −6pp 20→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · May 15 −5pp 25→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · May 31 +3pp 48→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · June 30 −3pp 74→71¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.