# US x Iran permanent peace deal by...

> June 30 leads at 40%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:50.935Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 40%
- Runner-up: May 31 at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $940K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 40¢ | −1pp | $207K | polymarket | /markets/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7 |
| May 31 | 21¢ | −2pp | $466K | polymarket | /markets/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-polymarket-0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089 |
| May 15 | 7¢ | −3pp | $267K | polymarket | /markets/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-15-polymarket-0x1db02ba50e2312a62b4104de691cc7a76065d8d0da40decf93eb1b914a3217b7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | May 31 | May 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 39 | 23 | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 | 21 | 6 |
| 2026-05-03 | 37 | — | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · May 15 −3pp 9→6¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market prices the likelihood of a permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran by June 30, 2026, at 37%. The current probability reflects significant uncertainty: shorter-term deals by May 15 and May 31 trade much lower (5¢ and 18¢), suggesting markets expect any near-term agreement would be interim rather than permanent. Key drivers include ongoing nuclear negotiations, regional tensions around Iranian assets like Kharg Island, and uranium enrichment levels. The main catalyst will be whether diplomatic talks produce a framework agreement within the next two months, versus continued status-quo hostilities or military escalation. Markets also distinguish between deal announcements and actual implementation, with permanent agreements requiring verification mechanisms.

### Key factors

- Shorter timeframe contracts (May 15, May 31) price far lower than the June 30 deadline, indicating markets doubt rapid resolution of core issues like uranium enrichment verification
- Related market on US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31 trades at 10¢, suggesting nuclear negotiations remain the primary sticking point rather than diplomatic willingness
- High volume and 37¢ pricing on the June 30 contract suggests meaningful probability of agreement, yet substantial doubt given it represents less than even odds
- The runner-up outcome at 18% indicates markets assign significant probability to alternative scenarios (military action, negotiation failure, or different endpoint dates)
- Market liquidity concentrated on May-June timeframes rather than later 2026 dates suggests near-term events will determine whether permanent deal framework emerges

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.