# Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines

> Rigetti Computing leads at 81%, runner-up 75% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usacompanystake
Updated: 2026-06-08T08:20:09.284Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Rigetti Computing at 81%
- Runner-up: D-Wave Quantum at 75%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $25K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rigetti Computing | 81¢ | +3pp | $272 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-rgti |
| D-Wave Quantum | 75¢ | −1pp | $858 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-qbts |
| GlobalFoundries | 73¢ | +2pp | $95 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-gfs |
| Performance Drone Works | 55¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-pdw |
| Anthropic | 47¢ | +7pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-anth |
| OpenAI | 44¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-oai |
| Unusual Machines | 44¢ | −20pp | $9 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-umac |
| Neros Technologies | 44¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-ntec |
| Anduril | 43¢ | +7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-andu |
| Micron | 31¢ | +1pp | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-mu |
| IonQ | 29¢ | +1pp | $923 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-ionq |
| Palantir | 18¢ | +3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-pltr |
| Nvidia | 15¢ | +2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-nvda |
| Boeing | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-ba |
| Lockheed Martin | 13¢ | ±0 | $344 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-lmt |
| TSMC | 10¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-tsm |
| Eli Lilly | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-lly |
| Spirit Airlines | 8¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-spi |
| Pfizer | 8¢ | +3pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-pfe |
| Freeport-McMoRan | 7¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-any-part-of-the-united-states-federal-governm-kalshi-kxusacompanystake-27jan01-fcx |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Rigetti Computing | D-Wave Quantum | GlobalFoundries |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 14 |
| 2026-05-10 | 15 | — | 14 |
| 2026-05-15 | 18 | 9 | 20 |
| 2026-05-25 | 80 | 83 | 74 |
| 2026-06-01 | 78 | 84 | 61 |
| 2026-06-07 | 83 | 81 | 73 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · OpenAI +38pp 11→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Unusual Machines −20pp 44→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · GlobalFoundries +11pp 61→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Micron −11pp 35→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Anthropic +9pp 22→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question asks whether any U.S. federal agency or entity will acquire an ownership stake in Spirit Airlines between now and the resolution date. At 7 cents, traders estimate roughly an 7% probability of this occurring, suggesting skepticism about direct government intervention in the airline. Spirit Airlines has faced financial distress and operational challenges, making it a theoretically possible candidate for government support or acquisition, though this remains a low-probability event. The probability would likely increase if Spirit faces imminent bankruptcy, if the federal government signals industrial policy priorities in aviation, or if political pressure mounts for government action. A potential catalyst would be official bankruptcy filings, Congressional hearings on airline industry consolidation, or explicit policy statements from the Department of Transportation regarding airline sector intervention. Current context includes broader debate about government involvement in strategic industries, though aviation ownership by federal entities remains historically uncommon.

### Key factors

- Spirit Airlines' current balance sheet status and debt-to-equity ratio compared to historical government intervention thresholds in other airlines
- Recent statements or policy announcements from the Department of Transportation, Federal Reserve, or Treasury regarding airline industry intervention authority
- Whether Spirit has filed for bankruptcy protection or missed debt covenants that would trigger government participation mechanisms
- Comparison of trading volumes across related government-ownership contracts (Palantir at 18 cents, Lockheed Martin at 22 cents) suggesting relative probability weighting
- Precedent from prior airline interventions (e.g., 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19 CARES Act) and statutory authorization for federal equity stakes versus loan guarantees

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usacompanystake
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usacompanystake

## License

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