# Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 21, 2029

> Before Jan 21, 2029 leads at 32%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 33 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usaexpandterritory
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:50.383Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-21

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 21, 2029 at 32%
- Runner-up: Before Jan 2028 at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $239

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 21, 2029 | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-acquire-any-territory-not-u-kalshi-kxusaexpandterritory-29jan21 |
| Before Jan 2028 | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-acquire-any-territory-not-u-kalshi-kxusaexpandterritory-28jan01 |
| Before Jan 2027 | 7¢ | +2pp | $239 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-acquire-any-territory-not-u-kalshi-kxusaexpandterritory-27jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 21, 2029 | Before Jan 2028 | Before Jan 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 30 | — | — |
| 2026-05-29 | 30 | 22 | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 37 | 25 | 14 |
| 2026-06-12 | 31 | 21 | 10 |
| 2026-06-14 | 32 | 22 | 7 |
| 2026-06-17 | — | 21 | 6 |
| 2026-06-23 | — | — | 8 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract measures whether the United States will acquire territory outside its current borders by January 2029—roughly 35% likelihood according to market pricing. The 35% probability reflects modest but non-negligible positioning for territorial expansion over the next 2.5 years. Market attention centers on Greenland acquisition prospects (priced at 34¢), suggesting that specific geopolitical opportunity is the primary driver of the overall probability. The core uncertainty hinges on whether stated policy interests translate into actual negotiated transfers or military action. Key factors include ongoing U.S.-Denmark diplomatic discussions, current U.S. administrations' stated interest in Greenland, market reaction to any official acquisition attempts, and whether other territorial opportunities (Caribbean, North American holdings) emerge. Resolution depends primarily on observable acquisition announcements or completed territorial transfers by the deadline.

### Key factors

- Greenland acquisition sub-contract trades at 34¢, representing ~97% of the leader contract's implied probability, indicating concentrated market focus on one potential territory
- U.S. government formal acquisition attempts or diplomatic negotiations with Denmark would likely move the market materially upward or downward
- Historical precedent shows U.S. territorial expansion has not occurred since 1959 (Alaska/Hawaii statehood), making forecasters weight baseline inertia heavily
- Trading volume on Greenland-specific contract ($1,855 in 24h) reflects modest liquidity and potential thin-market pricing
- Current 35% leader contract price exceeds runner-up at 21%, indicating majority market expectation favors expansion occurring over status quo

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usaexpandterritory
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usaexpandterritory

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.