# Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year

> Before Jan 20, 2029 leads at 74%, runner-up 67% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usairanagreement
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.952Z
Category: general · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029 at 74%
- Runner-up: Before 2028 at 67%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $95K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 74¢ | −1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-29jan20 |
| Before 2028 | 67¢ | −1pp | $217 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-28 |
| Before 2027 | 48¢ | −4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27 |
| Before December | 43¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26dec |
| Before November | 33¢ | +1pp | $313 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26nov |
| Before October | 27¢ | −1pp | $293 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26oct |
| Before September | 25¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26sep |
| Before August | 18¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-be-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26aug |
| Before July | 9¢ | +1pp | $86K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26jul |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 20, 2029 | Before 2028 | Before 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 79 | 77 | 56 |
| 2026-05-25 | 78 | 72 | 61 |
| 2026-06-01 | 75 | 70 | 53 |
| 2026-06-06 | 74 | 69 | 51 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 68 | 47 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 67 | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Before December −11pp 56→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Before October −9pp 43→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Before November −7pp 48→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Before August −5pp 23→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Before December −5pp 46→41¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 63% probability reflects traders' assessment that the US and Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement before year-end 2026. This is notably higher than the 34% average on Kalshi, suggesting significant confidence among top contract holders. The outcome depends on whether diplomatic negotiations can overcome longstanding barriers around sanctions relief, uranium enrichment limits, and verification protocols. The 2024 US presidential election outcome and Iran's nuclear program trajectory are primary drivers—an administration change could substantially shift negotiating positions. The coming months will be critical, as any major escalation in Middle East tensions or Iranian nuclear advancement could derail talks, while diplomatic breakthroughs or multilateral pressure could accelerate an agreement. Key decision points likely emerge during UN General Assembly sessions and scheduled diplomatic engagements.

### Key factors

- The leading contract price (63%) significantly exceeds the Kalshi average (34%), indicating concentration among specific traders with potentially different information or models
- No new Iranian nuclear deal has been reached since the 2015 JCPOA, and conditions have fundamentally shifted since the US withdrew in 2018
- The runner-up contract at 50% probability suggests material uncertainty—a 13-point gap indicates substantial disagreement about deal likelihood
- Iran's current nuclear stockpile and enrichment levels are higher than historical baselines, potentially affecting negotiation prerequisites
- The timeline requires agreement within approximately 8 months from the current date, compressing the window for resolving complex technical and political disputes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usairanagreement
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usairanagreement
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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