# Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 6 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uscanadatariffdown
Updated: 2026-09-13T19:20:51.562Z
Category: general · Topic: recession
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 64%
- Runner-up: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 57%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 64¢ | +12pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-order-lower-tariffs-on-canada-before-ja-kalshi-kxuscanadatariffdown-26sep-jan01 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 57¢ | +14pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-order-lower-tariffs-on-canada-before-de-kalshi-kxuscanadatariffdown-26sep-dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 57¢ | +5pp | $753 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-order-lower-tariffs-on-canada-before-no-kalshi-kxuscanadatariffdown-26sep-nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 41¢ | +11pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-order-lower-tariffs-on-canada-before-oc-kalshi-kxuscanadatariffdown-26sep-oct01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Dec 1, 2026 | Before Nov 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | 19 | 13 | 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | 50 | 43 | 39 |
| 2026-09-11 | 62 | 57 | 44 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The market currently prices an 11% chance that Trump orders lower tariffs on Canada before January 1, 2027, with only a 5% probability the action occurs before December 1, 2026. This reflects skepticism that tariff relief will happen in the remaining months of 2026, despite ongoing trade tensions and periodic renegotiation discussions between the US and Canada. The low probability suggests traders believe Trump is more likely to maintain or increase tariffs than reduce them in this timeframe. Movement would depend on shifts in trade policy strategy, negotiations over USMCA terms, or domestic political pressures favoring tariff relief. The December 1 and November 1 contract prices show even tighter odds, indicating concentrated doubt about near-term action. Any formal announcement from Trump or his administration regarding Canadian tariff reductions would directly resolve this question.

### Key factors

- Trump has generally favored protectionist tariff policies; historical pattern of tariff increases rather than decreases would need to reverse
- No scheduled trade negotiation deadlines or public policy announcements between now and Jan 1, 2027 have been reported
- The gap between Nov 1 (5%), Dec 1 (5%), and Jan 1 (11%) probabilities suggests marginally higher expectations only after the calendar turns to 2027
- Canadian tariff negotiations typically occur during broader USMCA review periods or in response to specific trade disputes; no acute crisis requiring immediate tariff reduction is evident
- Volume across all three contracts is near zero ($0 24h), indicating minimal recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uscanadatariffdown
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uscanadatariffdown
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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