# Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by April 30 — ↓ 1.4M

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 20 contracts — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usd-hit-iranian-rials-april-30
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:27.584Z
Category: general · Topic: iran
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $291

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓120 | 17¢ | −4pp | $223 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdjpy-hit-in-2026-120-polymarket-0x5f4dcc5116361ce0a7de7d12c0873f578a01cff707f801bf5981eb2778984a60 |
| ↓150 | 60¢ | −4pp | $69 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdjpy-hit-in-2026-150-polymarket-0xde0a3f43eb86d7f614d92c8fe01fa9514dbc2aa91d25887076de32ac801bb4dc |
| ↑1600 | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1600-polymarket-0xe5b0f3c8c3f49ba4c23c32dbb850a4919bbfe77ba4acb45721133cf4a3e4bd01 |
| ↓1000 | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0x817a57e23de4eac811231d8d653f80714c3fba756ef121e0da56dcdcb08ddcd5 |
| ↑170 | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdjpy-hit-in-2026-170-polymarket-0xc0b5930ff2e3da66d7aef7ecf03deb1f103695619200f1a04e4d6daf253d902a |
| ↑1.40 | 44¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-gbpusd-hit-in-2026-140-polymarket-0xf423fedf4fca019b1bc0a68d35470af00b4324b9dd7fbc8adccf9b02853e36b3 |
| ↑ 1.35 | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-135-polymarket-0xa3f6c3f05fc4ffded5ccf889d46456fd5de1d7a7317dac3900ad616c1deecfc6 |
| ↑ 1.20 | 72¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-eurusd-hit-in-2026-120-polymarket-0x126e7616167c979f0cc0418846e66637690735ebf08b9bb1aed7dcb6381e220e |
| ↓1.20 | 45¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-gbpusd-hit-in-2026-120-polymarket-0x4b35aa95bc415b6873ebf20d37eaff5508d06e1bde3e1d283e0d5f8540a62f8b |
| ↓1.10 | 49¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-110-polymarket-0x8a39d5a3b6813244534037a510c4f264bc0d205b2b527558e4278f440585a553 |
| ↑2000 | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-2000-polymarket-0x4b7b69b2d70b9ee7260db04502f0155d9de171ee8f7b99824c14bd857e934173 |
| ↑1.50 | 28¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-150-polymarket-0x07d55a4964a20535edcc627f2bc5447cfab01e991055e393e32365983bc102d5 |
| ↓1400 | 62¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1400-polymarket-0x4704883e7c3161d5ff7f35e43d0b2b09f58ceb70b1e7d180779427f7c8dde43f |
| ↑1.45 | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-145-polymarket-0x3c013daf9e3ed2eb66277adfa1f6419f1cd8d3fc87b8f238a488d896bc4bdcbc |
| ↓130 | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdjpy-hit-in-2026-130-polymarket-0x22d375264b9c64c0bb7a1cc3bc2f4756bebe007f2eca377cb968c8000ec7bf06 |
| ↓1.30 | 59¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-gbpusd-hit-in-2026-130-polymarket-0xd24a13436eacb1a32d7f5ac3e2c7c2703426215ea5f11a67154bb5f1852e5119 |
| ↓1100 | 33¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1100-polymarket-0x00db2b7ce1e0da8b5de9022ccda18c672fbce05ac21933a0f3cd6fc034c7cc38 |
| ↑180 | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdjpy-hit-in-2026-180-polymarket-0x5a09e87248069e2b83e73424e83a6c7eece9b4982e36ff8aed1fbacda2ce9b54 |
| ↓1350 | 39¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1350-polymarket-0x8602b2129a10aea9aa6b2957b8fae60a1b4630c50c7b259c0659d922b99cb662 |
| ↑1.45 | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-gbpusd-hit-in-2026-145-polymarket-0xa2457051d0fe0cf1f63bdba391f305957ca1a93d73b71d925c83a73e1f8122eb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 46 |
| 2026-04-19 | 35 |
| 2026-04-26 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 32 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · ↑180 +14pp 10→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · ↓120 −13pp 37→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · ↑1.45 +13pp 35→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · ↓120 −11pp 24→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · ↓1350 −11pp 50→39¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usd-hit-iranian-rials-april-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usd-hit-iranian-rials-april-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.