# Will USD/CAD hit __ in 2026 — ↑1.60

> ↑1.42 leads at 56%, runner-up 47% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdcad-hit
Updated: 2026-06-17T18:20:18.456Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: ↑1.42 at 56%
- Runner-up: ↓1.10 at 47%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑1.42 | 56¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-142-polymarket-0xd29f65560c12015a71884dc65cb1965b5afde4f4f7e6e169efc2814ea244c84f |
| ↓1.10 | 47¢ | −10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-110-polymarket-0x8a39d5a3b6813244534037a510c4f264bc0d205b2b527558e4278f440585a553 |
| ↑1.45 | 45¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-145-polymarket-0x3c013daf9e3ed2eb66277adfa1f6419f1cd8d3fc87b8f238a488d896bc4bdcbc |
| ↓1.33 | 43¢ | −10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-133-polymarket-0x056e31ab47738fe3e161edac8bb03fcbcb386aee7dbf373af27ceeb14a715e99 |
| ↓1.30 | 43¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-130-polymarket-0xb5d8c9ebd73cfc56954f035de76b9e50034578d7a6aa059792443c7c13ac7d9e |
| ↑1.50 | 40¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-150-polymarket-0x07d55a4964a20535edcc627f2bc5447cfab01e991055e393e32365983bc102d5 |
| ↓1.25 | 39¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-125-polymarket-0xc8e78b319d05d5fd647f4c33d9b8efd8a7e8622fce5bbc892e84e74ed94a48d1 |
| ↓1.20 | 30¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-120-polymarket-0x13f319827bf148c75e2ad9121cdb1f20b9f5d0caa4c3e6972e3b75994a5b97cc |
| ↑1.55 | 20¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-155-polymarket-0x21740b43ac53a15dcf2f059b6b270e26d5ead7ce0c1b864880200484d05de8cc |
| ↑1.60 | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-160-polymarket-0x57b0c3aa4f4ffaff92db4687dc346e746afdc4cc5d35858b7de1f11edf193677 |
| ↑1.70 | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdcad-hit-in-2026-170-polymarket-0x05212ec39011e26adf13933e8e43b4f1ebcbe57268c212364432d1c921673b0c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑1.42 | ↓1.10 | ↑1.45 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 57 | 28 | — |
| 2026-05-22 | 56 | 27 | 46 |
| 2026-06-01 | 71 | 42 | 45 |
| 2026-06-03 | — | 42 | 45 |
| 2026-06-10 | — | 42 | 61 |
| 2026-06-11 | 71 | 29 | 48 |
| 2026-06-16 | 60 | 44 | 49 |
| 2026-06-17 | 55 | 34 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-11 · ↑1.45 −13pp 61→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-11 · ↓1.10 −13pp 42→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · ↑1.42 −11pp 71→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · ↓1.33 −10pp 51→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · ↓1.10 −10pp 44→34¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects trader expectations that USD/CAD will exceed 1.60 by year-end 2026, with the leading contract priced at 56% probability as of early May 2026. The prediction balances two competing dynamics: interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada, and commodity price movements, particularly oil, which significantly influences Canadian currency strength. Currently traders see it slightly more likely than not that the loonie will weaken past this threshold. The biggest catalyst will be central bank policy decisions over the next seven months—any sustained rate divergence favoring the U.S. could accelerate USD strength, while energy price rallies or BoC hawkishness would support CAD. The outcome also hinges on broader risk sentiment, as safe-haven flows tend to benefit the U.S. dollar during economic uncertainty.

### Key factors

- US-Canada interest rate differential: if Fed funds remain elevated while BoC cuts rates, it increases USD/CAD odds; if rates converge or BoC stays restrictive, it supports CAD strength
- Oil price trajectory: West Texas Intermediate averaging above $80/barrel historically correlates with CAD appreciation; sustained sub-$70 weakness would favor USD strength
- US economic data relative to Canada: stronger employment, inflation, and GDP growth in the US versus Canada would support the USD/CAD move above 1.60
- BoC policy guidance: any forward guidance signaling rate cuts or economic weakness would weaken CAD versus the USD
- Safe-haven demand: geopolitical or financial stress episodes typically strengthen USD at the expense of CAD, supporting higher USD/CAD levels

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdcad-hit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usdcad-hit

## License

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