# Will Total Public Debt Outstanding for April 30, 2026 be above 39.20 trillion

> Above 60k leads at 94%, runner-up 93% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdebtmon
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.826Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-26

## Headline

- Leader: Above 60k at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 50k at 93%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 60k | 94¢ | +2pp | $500 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-ky4r26-60000 |
| Above 50k | 93¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-ky4r26-50000 |
| Above 1.1M | 86¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-senatetxr26-1100000 |
| Above 1.2M | 83¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-senatetxr26-1200000 |
| Above 1.3M | 77¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-senatetxr26-1300000 |
| Above 70k | 77¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-ky4r26-70000 |
| Above 1.4M | 76¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-senatetxr26-1400000 |
| Above 80k | 64¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-ky4r26-80000 |
| Above 1.5M | 56¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-senatetxr26-1500000 |
| Above 90k | 52¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-ky4r26-90000 |
| Above 1.6M | 33¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-senatetxr26-1600000 |
| Above 1.7M | 22¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-senatetxr26-1700000 |
| Above 100k | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-ky4r26-100000 |
| Above 1.8M | 10¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-senatetxr26-1800000 |
| Above 900k | 4¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-total-vote-count-for-all-participants-in-kalshi-kxprimaryturnout-govohnomr26-900000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 60k | Above 50k | Above 1.1M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | — | — | 34 |
| 2026-04-20 | 78 | 88 | 79 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 90 |
| 2026-04-26 | 84 | 91 | 88 |
| 2026-04-27 | 88 | 92 | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 89 | 91 | 88 |
| 2026-05-01 | 90 | — | 70 |
| 2026-05-06 | 92 | 93 | 85 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Above 900k −37pp 45→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Above 1.3M +19pp 56→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Above 1.1M +15pp 70→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Above 1.2M +12pp 69→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Above 1.4M +10pp 65→75¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdebtmon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usdebtmon

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.