# Will USD/IRR for April 2026 be above 1,100,000

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 43% across 18 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdirr
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:36:00.981Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.6% | 64¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-36-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.6 |
| Above 2.5% | 91¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-25-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26apr-t2.5 |
| Above 3.7% | 31¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-37-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.7 |
| Above 4.0% | 3¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-40-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t4.0 |
| Above 365ㅤ | 4¢ | −1pp | $777 | kalshi | /markets/will-gasoline-all-types-in-us-city-average-for-apr-kalshi-kxusgascpi-26may12-t365 |
| Above 2.4% | 3¢ | +1pp | $731 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-a-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26may13-t2.4 |
| Above 3.8% | 7¢ | ±0 | $724 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-38-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.8 |
| Above 130.0B USD | 7¢ | −4pp | $412 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t130.0 |
| Above 40.0B USD | 89¢ | +3pp | $223 | kalshi | /markets/will-china-balance-of-trade-for-april-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxchtradebal-26may08-t40.0 |
| Above 3.0% | 4¢ | −1pp | $167 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-ab-kalshi-kxitcpiprel-26may15-t3.0 |
| Above 2.6% | 66¢ | ±0 | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-core-cpi-inflation-be-above-26-fo-kalshi-kxcpicoreyoy-26apr-t2.6 |
| Above 360ㅤ | 17¢ | −3pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-gasoline-all-types-in-us-city-average-for-apr-kalshi-kxusgascpi-26may12-t360 |
| Above 1.400M | 75¢ | +1pp | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-housing-starts-for-april-2026-be-above-140-kalshi-kxhousingstart-26may21-t1.400 |
| Above 2.9% | 65¢ | ±0 | $70 | kalshi | /markets/will-euro-area-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-b-kalshi-kxezcpiyoyf-26may20-t2.9 |
| Above 3.5% | 84¢ | ±0 | $61 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-35-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.5 |
| Above 3.4% | 95¢ | ±0 | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-34-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.4 |
| Above 2.9% | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-kalshi-kxdecpiprel-26may12-t2.9 |
| Above 2.8% | 65¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-inflation-rate-yoy-for-april-2026-be-kalshi-kxdecpiprel-26may12-t2.8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 37 |
| 2026-04-19 | 40 |
| 2026-04-26 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Above 2.8% +38pp 4→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Above 1.400M +29pp 32→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Above 3.4% −25pp 94→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Above 3.4% +25pp 69→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Above 2.8% +25pp 42→67¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdirr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usdirr

## License

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