# Will the USD/JPY open price be between 158.250 and 158.499 at Apr 21, 2026 at 10am EDT

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdjpy
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.936Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $10

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 156.750 to 156.999 | 3¢ | −6pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-usdjpy-open-price-be-between-156750-and-1-kalshi-kxusdjpy-26may1110-b156.875 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 18 |
| 2026-05-09 | 12 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-09 · 156.750 to 156.999 −6pp 18→12¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdjpy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usdjpy

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.