# Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026 — ↑1800

> ↓1400 leads at 50%, runner-up 45% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdkrw-hit
Updated: 2026-06-17T18:20:19.497Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: ↓1400 at 50%
- Runner-up: ↑1600 at 45%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓1400 | 50¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1400-polymarket-0x4704883e7c3161d5ff7f35e43d0b2b09f58ceb70b1e7d180779427f7c8dde43f |
| ↑1600 | 45¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1600-polymarket-0xe5b0f3c8c3f49ba4c23c32dbb850a4919bbfe77ba4acb45721133cf4a3e4bd01 |
| ↓1350 | 42¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1350-polymarket-0x8602b2129a10aea9aa6b2957b8fae60a1b4630c50c7b259c0659d922b99cb662 |
| ↓1200 | 39¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1200-polymarket-0x0388879d4a1f1a1bf774361a510059f1a2f1b9964d5313da32f0aba51c1ee3d5 |
| ↓1300 | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1300-polymarket-0xb86ff266fe5b0de5a728a40465bd743521dc743729701987323fa7935dee8339 |
| ↓1100 | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1100-polymarket-0x00db2b7ce1e0da8b5de9022ccda18c672fbce05ac21933a0f3cd6fc034c7cc38 |
| ↑1650 | 27¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1650-polymarket-0x9d59c0d8aa4a011e87c84bbf4d32f11831939a9acbb80046be2644783707ab1c |
| ↓1000 | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0x817a57e23de4eac811231d8d653f80714c3fba756ef121e0da56dcdcb08ddcd5 |
| ↑1700 | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1700-polymarket-0xe2ceaa29595a57764cc98f64ec60594dab2d12ea1c0155fc549e64566bcf2e58 |
| ↑1800 | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-1800-polymarket-0x45226b6d0877bbd94b66bcaed98a43ea37917de412b728c2aec566d3475c5a0d |
| ↑2000 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-usdkrw-hit-in-2026-2000-polymarket-0x4b7b69b2d70b9ee7260db04502f0155d9de171ee8f7b99824c14bd857e934173 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↓1400 | ↑1600 | ↓1350 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 58 | 21 | — |
| 2026-05-21 | 57 | 21 | 36 |
| 2026-06-03 | 59 | 22 | 35 |
| 2026-06-10 | 52 | 40 | 53 |
| 2026-06-17 | 55 | 45 | 51 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-13 · ↓1350 −18pp 69→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-12 · ↓1300 −11pp 47→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-12 · ↓1350 +9pp 60→69¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-13 · ↓1300 +8pp 36→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-11 · ↓1350 +7pp 53→60¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 62% chance that USD/KRW will reach 1,800 Korean won per U.S. dollar at some point during 2026. The current won valuation relative to the dollar, combined with expectations around interest rate differentials and economic growth between the U.S. and South Korea, appears to be the primary driver of this probability. A weaker won or stronger dollar would move the market higher; stronger Korean economic data or Federal Reserve rate cuts could push it lower. The resolution hinges on actual spot rates throughout 2026, with particular sensitivity to quarterly GDP releases, central bank policy announcements from both the Fed and Bank of Korea, and any geopolitical shifts affecting capital flows to emerging markets.

### Key factors

- Current USD/KRW spot rate versus 1,800 level—the starting point determines how much movement is required
- Interest rate differential between Federal Reserve policy and Bank of Korea rates, which directly influences currency carry trade positioning
- Economic growth expectations for the U.S. versus South Korea in 2026, affecting relative demand for each currency
- Capital flow trends into or out of Korean assets, including equity and bond market activity
- Historical volatility bands for USD/KRW over similar time windows to assess whether 1,800 lies within or outside typical ranges

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdkrw-hit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usdkrw-hit

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.