# Will the price of the USDX be above 105 by Jun 30, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 1 contract — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdm
Updated: 2026-06-27T16:20:49.639Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 102 | 34¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-the-usdx-be-above-102-by-jun-30-kalshi-kxusdm-26-t102 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 16 |
| 2026-06-13 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20 | 14 |
| 2026-06-27 | 27 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 102 +31pp 8→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 102 −29pp 52→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 102 +13pp 39→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Above 102 +4pp 10→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 102 −4pp 14→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 79% chance the US Dollar Index closes above 100 by June 30, 2026, but only a 3% chance it rises above 105 during that period. The steep probability cliff between these levels suggests traders expect the USDX to remain in a narrow range near current levels rather than make a sharp directional move in either direction. The probability is driven primarily by Fed policy expectations and global economic growth differentials. With about four weeks until resolution, upcoming inflation data, Fed communications, and international central bank decisions will be the main factors determining whether dollar strength persists or reverses. The current pricing reflects consensus that near-term dollar stability is likely, but a significant rally beyond 105 is viewed as unlikely without a major shift in monetary policy or economic conditions.

### Key factors

- The USDX is currently near 105; the 79% probability for 'above 100' reflects confidence the dollar stays within a historically normal range rather than weakness below parity
- Contract prices show extreme confidence clustering: 59¢ for above-100 versus 3¢ for above-105 indicates traders expect very little upward movement from current levels in 27 days
- Only $124 in 24-hour volume on the above-105 contract suggests limited disagreement—most market participants see a sharp rally as improbable
- Fed rate expectations and US Treasury yield differentials relative to other G10 currencies are the primary drivers of dollar direction over this short timeframe
- Resolution depends on near-term data: CPI reports, PCE inflation readings, and any Fed guidance adjustments before June 30 are the most likely catalysts for significant probability shifts

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usdm

## License

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