# Will USD/MXN be above 19 by month-end

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 1 contract — refreshed 44 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdmexmax
Updated: 2026-06-26T13:20:49.250Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.75 or above | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-usdmxn-be-above-1775-by-month-end-1775-or-abo-kalshi-kxusdmexmax-26jun30-t17.75 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 62 |
| 2026-06-10 | 19 |
| 2026-06-19 | 7 |
| 2026-06-26 | 10 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · 17.75 or above +4pp 7→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 73% chance that USD/MXN closes June 2026 above 17.75, with only a 5% probability it reaches 19. The Mexican peso's strength or weakness against the dollar depends primarily on relative interest-rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and Banco de México, trade dynamics, and capital flows responding to economic data from both countries. The gap between the 17.75 level (favored) and 19 level (low probability) suggests traders expect peso stability rather than sharp dollar appreciation. Key drivers include U.S. inflation reports that could influence Fed policy, Mexican employment and inflation data affecting central bank expectations, and any shifts in trade or geopolitical risk premiums. The most significant uncertainty resolves through late-month economic releases and any surprise policy signals from either central bank.

### Key factors

- Relative interest rate expectations: higher U.S. rates favor dollar strength, while elevated Mexican rates support the peso
- Trade flows and tariff environment: changes to U.S.-Mexico trade policy directly affect currency demand
- Capital flow direction: portfolio rebalancing between U.S. and Mexican assets based on perceived risk and returns
- Economic data releases: June inflation, employment, and manufacturing data from both countries will influence expectations
- Central bank communication: policy signals from the Fed or Banco de México about future rate paths

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdmexmax
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usdmexmax

## License

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