# Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 56.0%

> Above 56.0% leads at 85%, runner-up 76% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdttbill
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.191Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-28

## Headline

- Leader: Above 56.0% at 85%
- Runner-up: Above 58.0% at 76%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 56.0% | 85¢ | +24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-percentage-of-usdt-reserves-held-in-us-treasu-kalshi-kxusdttbill-27feb28-t56.0 |
| Above 58.0% | 76¢ | −43pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-percentage-of-usdt-reserves-held-in-us-treasu-kalshi-kxusdttbill-27feb28-t58.0 |
| Above 60.0% | 66¢ | −41pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-percentage-of-usdt-reserves-held-in-us-treasu-kalshi-kxusdttbill-27feb28-t60.0 |
| Above 62.0% | 41¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-percentage-of-usdt-reserves-held-in-us-treasu-kalshi-kxusdttbill-27feb28-t62.0 |
| Above 64.0% | 23¢ | −26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-percentage-of-usdt-reserves-held-in-us-treasu-kalshi-kxusdttbill-27feb28-t64.0 |
| Above 70.0% | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-percentage-of-usdt-reserves-held-in-us-treasu-kalshi-kxusdttbill-27feb28-t70.0 |
| Above 66.0% | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-percentage-of-usdt-reserves-held-in-us-treasu-kalshi-kxusdttbill-27feb28-t66.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 56.0% | Above 58.0% | Above 60.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | — | — | 90 |
| 2026-04-14 | — | 91 | 91 |
| 2026-04-16 | 52 | 38 | 48 |
| 2026-04-18 | 34 | 28 | 41 |
| 2026-04-23 | — | 84 | 80 |
| 2026-05-01 | 58 | 41 | 40 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Above 62.0% +8pp 33→41¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market tracks whether Tether (USDT) will hold more than 56% of its reserves in U.S. Treasury Bills by the end of 2026. The 85% probability reflects market confidence this threshold will be exceeded. The current level is driven by Tether's ongoing shift toward higher-quality collateral following regulatory pressure and competitive dynamics with other stablecoins. The main uncertainty centers on how aggressively Tether's management maintains Treasury allocation versus other reserve types, and whether regulatory changes affect their reserve strategy. The resolution will depend on Tether's officially reported reserve composition released at year-end 2026, which constitutes the decisive catalyst for settling this contract. Market participants are essentially pricing in continued Treasury preference as Tether responds to institutional and regulatory expectations around stablecoin backing.

### Key factors

- Tether's current publicly reported Treasury allocation and historical trend toward increasing this percentage
- Regulatory developments affecting stablecoin reserve requirements or acceptable collateral types through 2026
- Competitive pressure from other stablecoins like USDC, which may influence Tether's reserve composition strategy
- Interest rate environment and yields on Treasury Bills versus alternative reserve assets Tether might hold
- Tether's official year-end 2026 reserve attestation report, which will provide the definitive measurement for contract resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdttbill
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usdttbill

## License

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