# Will the price of the USDX be above 101 by Dec 31, 2026

> Above 102 leads at 63%, runner-up 5% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdx
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.678Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 102 at 63%
- Runner-up: Above 101 at 5%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 102 | 63¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-the-usdx-be-above-102-by-dec-31-kalshi-kxusdx-26-t102 |
| Above 101 | 5¢ | −12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-the-usdx-be-above-101-by-dec-31-kalshi-kxusdx-26-t101 |
| Above 104 | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-price-of-the-usdx-be-above-104-by-dec-31-kalshi-kxusdx-26-t104 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 102 | Above 101 | Above 104 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 48 | 47 | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 63 | 76 | 43 |
| 2026-04-23 | 62 | 1 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | — | 2 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 63 | 3 | 5 |
| 2026-04-30 | 62 | 43 | 3 |
| 2026-05-01 | 63 | 31 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 63 | — | — |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether the US Dollar Index will close above 101 on December 31, 2026. At 62% probability, the market implies this outcome is somewhat more likely than not. The USDX reflects the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies. Upward pressure on the index typically comes from higher US interest rates or economic outperformance, while downward pressure results from Fed rate cuts or relative weakness in US growth. The path to resolution depends heavily on Federal Reserve policy decisions throughout 2026, as interest rate expectations are the primary driver of currency valuations. The next major catalyst will be Fed meetings and inflation data releases over the coming months, which will signal the likely trajectory of rates through year-end. Current oil price volatility, reflected in the related contracts, can also influence USD strength through energy-linked economic dynamics.

### Key factors

- Federal Reserve interest rate policy and forward guidance announcements between now and December 2026 will be the primary determinant of dollar strength
- Current USDX level relative to 101 and the cumulative movement required over 7 months to reach or exceed that threshold
- Relative economic growth and inflation data in the US versus other major economies, which drive comparative currency valuations
- Geopolitical developments and capital flows that affect risk appetite and safe-haven demand for US dollars
- Market positioning and technical levels in USDX futures, which can create self-reinforcing momentum in either direction

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usdx
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usdx

## License

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