# Will total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States for week ending May 8, 2026 be above 1800ㅤ

> Above 1800ㅤ leads at 97%, runner-up 9% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usflycan
Updated: 2026-05-08T22:50:13.794Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-15

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1800ㅤ at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 2800ㅤ at 9%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1800ㅤ | 97¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-total-cancellations-within-into-or-out-of-the-kalshi-kxusflycan-26may08-t1800 |
| Above 2800ㅤ | 9¢ | −27pp | $755 | kalshi | /markets/will-total-cancellations-within-into-or-out-of-the-kalshi-kxusflycan-26may08-t2800 |
| Above 3000ㅤ | 5¢ | −21pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-total-cancellations-within-into-or-out-of-the-kalshi-kxusflycan-26may08-t3000 |
| Above 2900ㅤ | 5¢ | −30pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-total-cancellations-within-into-or-out-of-the-kalshi-kxusflycan-26may08-t2900 |
| Above 2700ㅤ | 5¢ | −27pp | $265 | kalshi | /markets/will-total-cancellations-within-into-or-out-of-the-kalshi-kxusflycan-26may08-t2700 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1800ㅤ | Above 2800ㅤ | Above 3000ㅤ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 31 | — | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 77 | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 89 | 73 |
| 2026-05-07 | 89 | 42 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | 97 | 15 | 9 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Above 2800ㅤ −47pp 89→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Above 1800ㅤ +46pp 31→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above 3000ㅤ −43pp 73→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above 2900ㅤ −40pp 81→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above 2700ㅤ −31pp 89→58¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects a strong market expectation that flight cancellations within, into, or out of the United States during the week of May 5-8, 2026 will exceed 1,800 total cancellations. The estimate sits notably above the lower threshold (1,600) where confidence reaches 85%, but traders assign meaningfully lower odds to higher thresholds like 2,000+ cancellations, suggesting consensus expectations cluster in the 1,600-2,000 range. Weather patterns, seasonal travel demand, and airline operational capacity during early May typically drive cancellation levels. The primary catalyst remains the actual cancellation data published for that week, which would definitively resolve this contract. Current probability reflects either anticipated spring weather volatility or elevated operational challenges expected during that specific period.

### Key factors

- Historical cancellation rates for early May weeks typically range 1,200-2,200, so 1,800 represents plausible but elevated territory
- Probability cliff between 1,600 threshold (85%) and 2,000 threshold (71%) suggests market uncertainty concentrates in the 1,600-2,000 band
- Spring weather systems and severe thunderstorm season across central U.S. routes peak during this timeframe, directly affecting cancellation likelihood
- Kalshi contract volume remains low ($270-$205 on related outcomes), indicating limited liquidity and potential for probability shifts with modest trading activity
- The outcome depends entirely on published DOT/airline cancellation statistics for the specific week, providing binary resolution without ambiguity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usflycan
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usflycan

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.