# Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 330ㅤ

> Above 350ㅤ leads at 84%, runner-up 50% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usgascpi
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:56.324Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-12

## Headline

- Leader: Above 350ㅤ at 84%
- Runner-up: Above 355ㅤ at 50%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $853

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 350ㅤ | 84¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gasoline-all-types-in-us-city-average-for-apr-kalshi-kxusgascpi-26may12-t350 |
| Above 355ㅤ | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gasoline-all-types-in-us-city-average-for-apr-kalshi-kxusgascpi-26may12-t355 |
| Above 360ㅤ | 17¢ | −3pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/will-gasoline-all-types-in-us-city-average-for-apr-kalshi-kxusgascpi-26may12-t360 |
| Above 365ㅤ | 4¢ | −1pp | $777 | kalshi | /markets/will-gasoline-all-types-in-us-city-average-for-apr-kalshi-kxusgascpi-26may12-t365 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 350ㅤ | Above 355ㅤ | Above 360ㅤ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | 84 | 78 | 72 |
| 2026-04-19 | 30 | 11 | 3 |
| 2026-04-25 | 47 | — | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 70 | 15 | 8 |
| 2026-05-03 | 84 | 50 | 17 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Above 355ㅤ +30pp 15→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Above 350ㅤ +23pp 47→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Above 350ㅤ +8pp 71→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Above 360ㅤ +7pp 8→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Above 360ㅤ +6pp 2→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that U.S. gasoline prices averaged above 350 cents per gallon in April 2026. The 84% probability suggests traders view above-350 prices as likely, with a notable gap to the 17% probability for above-360 and 5% for above-365, indicating uncertainty about how much higher prices could reach. Prices at this level would reflect continued global supply constraints or demand pressures. The resolution depends on official EIA data release, typically available mid-May, which will report April's actual city average. Key drivers include crude oil prices during April, refinery utilization rates, seasonal demand patterns, and any geopolitical or supply disruptions that occurred during the measurement period. The market's high confidence in exceeding 350 cents suggests either recent price momentum or expectations of sustained tightness, though the sharp probability drop at higher thresholds indicates skepticism about extreme levels.

### Key factors

- EIA will release April 2026 gasoline city average data in mid-May, resolving the contract with official government statistics
- The probability decline from 84% (above 350¢) to 17% (above 360¢) indicates traders expect the final average in the 350-360¢ range rather than significantly higher
- Crude oil prices and refinery capacity utilization during April 2026 are the primary factors determining whether the actual average exceeds 350¢
- Seasonal spring demand increases and any supply disruptions or geopolitical events during April would push averages higher, while demand weakness or increased supply would push lower
- The contract structure shows three tied price thresholds (350, 360, 365¢), with the winner-take-all format creating winner determined by which range the actual April average falls within

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usgascpi
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usgascpi

## License

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