# US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 9 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usiran-nuclear-deal-april-30
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:12.012Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 40% / Polymarket 30% — 10pp spread
- 24h volume: $456K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 19¢ | −3pp | $336K | polymarket | /markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633 |
| Before July | 9¢ | +1pp | $86K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26jul |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | 69¢ | +2pp | $27K | polymarket | /markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027-polymarket-0x182390641d3b1b47cc64274b9da290efd04221c586651ba190880713da6347d9 |
| Before 2027 | 48¢ | −4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27 |
| Before September | 25¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26sep |
| Before August | 18¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-be-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-26aug |
| Before 2028 | 67¢ | −1pp | $217 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-28 |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 74¢ | −1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-agree-to-a-new-iranian-nuclear-deal-th-kalshi-kxusairanagreement-27-29jan20 |
| June 30 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-0x0f9e5bd480cc8c085ec2f229d8fc8d892f6b16c53d16b9e2bd8ea78bb7be20b4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 48 |
| 2026-05-25 | 55 |
| 2026-06-01 | 47 |
| 2026-06-08 | 32 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? −5pp 70→65¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · Before August −5pp 23→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? −4pp 32→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · Before 2027 −4pp 51→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? −3pp 33→30¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 36% probability reflects market expectations that the US and Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement by April 30, 2026—now just over one week away. The sharp decline in Kalshi's "before June" contract (4¢) compared to longer-dated agreements suggests most traders expect negotiations to either conclude quickly or stall past the April deadline. Market pricing is driven by the current state of diplomatic talks and stated timelines from negotiating parties. The single biggest catalyst is whether an agreement text is finalized and announced before April 30; if talks extend into May or later, this contract would likely resolve negatively, with probability shifting to the June 30 or 2027 contracts currently priced higher. The 10-percentage-point gap between venues may reflect different assessments of diplomatic momentum or data freshness across platforms.

### Key factors

- Kalshi's April 30 contract at 4¢ (representing ~4% probability) versus the 36% aggregate for the same event indicates significant disagreement or volume concentration
- The June 30 contract across venues averages around 25%, suggesting traders believe any deal is more likely in May-June than in the remaining April window
- Polymarket consistently prices deals lower than Kalshi across comparable timeframes, a systematic 10pp gap that may reflect different trader bases or information sets
- The current date is May 23, 2026—only 7 days remain until the April 30 resolution date, making the 36% probability a near-term test of active negotiations
- No announced agreement has been reported as of May 23, while the longest-dated contracts (2027) trade at 50-58%, indicating baseline belief that deals are possible but not imminent

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usiran-nuclear-deal-april-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usiran-nuclear-deal-april-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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