# US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 1 contract — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usiran-nuclear-deal-june-30
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.151Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $336K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | 19¢ | −3pp | $336K | polymarket | /markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 36 |
| 2026-05-25 | 41 |
| 2026-06-01 | 35 |
| 2026-06-08 | 21 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? −4pp 32→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? −3pp 33→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? −3pp 24→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 26% chance the US and Iran reach a nuclear agreement by June 30, 2026. The low probability reflects the current geopolitical distance between the parties and the tight timeline remaining. A nuclear deal would typically require months of negotiation following a political decision to restart talks, which hasn't materialized. The main factors pushing probability up would be a significant diplomatic shift or international pressure, while factors pushing it down include continued US-Iran tensions and competing domestic political priorities. The critical catalyst is whether either side signals genuine willingness to resume formal negotiations in the coming weeks, as the June deadline leaves little room for extended discussions.

### Key factors

- The US currently has no active diplomatic channel for nuclear talks with Iran; restarting formal negotiations would need to occur before May to leave time for agreement by June 30
- Iran's nuclear program has advanced significantly since the 2015 JCPOA collapse, making verification and scope negotiation more complex and time-consuming
- The agreement involves multiple parties (US, Iran, EU, China, Russia) whose alignment on terms would need to occur simultaneously within an increasingly tight timeframe
- US domestic political constraints and Iranian leadership cycles create structural obstacles; the previous JCPOA took months of backchannel work before public negotiations began
- Market contracts show wider 2027 deadlines trading higher (51¢) while June-only contracts trade near 26%, indicating traders view the 4-week remaining window as severely constraining

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usiran-nuclear-deal-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usiran-nuclear-deal-june-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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