# US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 69% across 1 contract — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usiran-nuclear-deal
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.793Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 69% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $27K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | 69¢ | +2pp | $27K | polymarket | /markets/us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-2027-polymarket-0x182390641d3b1b47cc64274b9da290efd04221c586651ba190880713da6347d9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 62 |
| 2026-05-25 | 77 |
| 2026-06-01 | 70 |
| 2026-06-08 | 69 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? −5pp 70→65¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects a roughly even-odds assessment of whether the US and Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement by the end of 2026. The 51% probability sits between the more pessimistic near-term contracts (9% for a deal before June, 26% by June 30) and longer-dated expectations, suggesting markets see limited momentum for imminent negotiations but acknowledge possibilities over the remaining months. The current level balances structural barriers—deep US-Iran tensions, domestic political constraints in both countries, and the contentious terms from previous negotiations—against potential diplomatic openings. Key uncertainties include whether either administration signals renewed willingness to negotiate, how regional conflicts evolve, and whether international mediators can broker terms acceptable to both sides. The gap between near-term and year-end probabilities implies markets expect any deal would require sustained diplomatic work beyond the immediate period.

### Key factors

- US domestic political calendar and leadership positions relative to when negotiations could realistically conclude
- Iran's willingness to return to negotiating table given previous agreement withdrawals and sanctions dynamics
- Status of regional conflicts (Gaza, Yemen, proxy tensions) and whether de-escalation occurs ahead of nuclear talks
- International mediator involvement and stated commitment from key actors like the EU or neighboring countries to facilitate talks
- Technical parameters and inspection protocols that both sides would need to accept, drawing from JCPOA precedent

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usiran-nuclear-deal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usiran-nuclear-deal
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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