# Will the full text of the June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding be released in the world before Jun 17, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 6 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usiranmou
Updated: 2026-06-19T13:20:20.371Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jun 20, 2026 at 97%
- Runner-up: Before Jun 19, 2026 at 96%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $195K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jun 20, 2026 | 97¢ | +2pp | $31K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-full-text-of-the-june-2026-us-iran-memora-kalshi-kxusiranmou-27jan01-26jun20 |
| Before Jun 19, 2026 | 96¢ | +31pp | $163K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-full-text-of-the-june-2026-us-iran-memora-kalshi-kxusiranmou-27jan01-26jun19 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jun 20, 2026 | Before Jun 19, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | 76 | 34 |
| 2026-06-17 | 79 | 46 |
| 2026-06-18 | 81 | 77 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Before Jun 19, 2026 +31pp 46→77¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets assign an 81% probability that the full text of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026 will be publicly released by July 1, 2026. The probability reflects expectations that official statements will include substantial details within two weeks of signing, though markets price only a 25% chance of release by tomorrow (June 17). The timing contracts suggest uncertainty about whether immediate full disclosure occurs versus a phased release. Key drivers include standard diplomatic disclosure practices, potential congressional pressure for transparency, and whether confidential negotiation details remain classified. The June 19-20 window shows elevated trading volume, indicating market participants view those dates as realistic disclosure targets. Resolution depends on whether governments publish complete memorandum text versus summaries, and whether classified sections delay full public access.

### Key factors

- Current contract pricing shows 76% probability of release by June 20, but only 35% by June 19, indicating concentrated expected disclosure timing
- Trading volume peaks at the June 20 contract ($1,552 in 24h volume) relative to other timeframes, suggesting this is viewed as most probable release window
- Full-text release faces potential delays if portions require security review or remain subject to confidentiality agreements between nations
- Historical precedent for US-Iran agreements shows mixed patterns: some details released immediately while classified annexes remain restricted for years
- The narrow timeframe between signing (June 2026) and July 1 deadline compresses the typical executive review and approval timeline for public disclosure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usiranmou
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usiranmou
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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