# Who will earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026

> Reid Wiseman leads at 49%, runner-up 34% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usmdlfrdm
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.293Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Reid Wiseman at 49%
- Runner-up: Lee Greenwood at 34%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reid Wiseman | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-earn-the-presidential-medal-of-freedom-in-kalshi-kxusmdlfrdm-27-rwis |
| Lee Greenwood | 34¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-earn-the-presidential-medal-of-freedom-in-kalshi-kxusmdlfrdm-27-lgre |
| Dana White | 33¢ | +2pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-earn-the-presidential-medal-of-freedom-in-kalshi-kxusmdlfrdm-27-dwhi |
| Sean Hannity | 24¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-earn-the-presidential-medal-of-freedom-in-kalshi-kxusmdlfrdm-27-shan |
| Kid Rock | 16¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-earn-the-presidential-medal-of-freedom-in-kalshi-kxusmdlfrdm-27-kroc |
| Sylvester Stallone | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-earn-the-presidential-medal-of-freedom-in-kalshi-kxusmdlfrdm-27-ssta |
| Elon Musk | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-earn-the-presidential-medal-of-freedom-in-kalshi-kxusmdlfrdm-27-emus |
| Dan Scavino | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-earn-the-presidential-medal-of-freedom-in-kalshi-kxusmdlfrdm-27-dsca |
| Bill Belichick | 7¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-earn-the-presidential-medal-of-freedom-in-kalshi-kxusmdlfrdm-27-bbel |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Reid Wiseman | Lee Greenwood | Dana White |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 41 | — | 29 |
| 2026-04-17 | — | 31 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 45 | 34 | — |
| 2026-04-26 | 47 | — | 26 |
| 2026-05-01 | 45 | 35 | 35 |
| 2026-05-07 | 49 | 34 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 48 | — | — |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Reid Wiseman +4pp 45→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Bill Belichick −3pp 9→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Dan Scavino −3pp 9→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 45% probability indicates that markets currently assess less than even odds that at least one person will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026. This prediction reflects uncertainty about whether the administration will hold an awards ceremony, who might be selected if one occurs, and whether any announced recipient will actually receive the medal before year-end. The current price sits between the leading outcome (45%) and the runner-up (35%), suggesting meaningful disagreement about the likelihood. Key drivers include the timing of any planned ceremony—typically held in spring or fall—and whether announced recipients actually attend and receive medals in the calendar year. The main catalyst would be an official announcement from the White House about a 2026 ceremony date and attendee list, which would substantially reduce uncertainty around both the probability of an event occurring and which specific individuals might qualify.

### Key factors

- Presidential Medal of Freedom ceremonies are discretionary and don't occur on a fixed schedule; the administration must announce and execute one in 2026 for this to resolve affirmatively
- Historical practice shows recipients are typically announced weeks or months before the ceremony, creating a clear market signal before year-end
- The winner-take-all structure with 9 bound contracts suggests traders are pricing both the probability of any ceremony occurring and uncertainty about which specific recipients might be selected
- Trading volume is moderate ($6K-$12K on related contracts), indicating this is not a high-conviction market with deep liquidity
- An official White House announcement of a 2026 ceremony and recipient list would be the primary resolution trigger, likely occurring in a formal statement or press briefing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usmdlfrdm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usmdlfrdm

## License

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