# Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for April 2026 be above 3.4%

> Above 5.7% leads at 60%, runner-up 30% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usppiyoy
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:50.627Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-15

## Headline

- Leader: Above 5.7% at 60%
- Runner-up: Above 5.9% at 30%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $623
- Resolved: Above 3.4%

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.7% | 60¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t5.7 |
| Above 5.9% | 30¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t5.9 |
| Above 6.0% | 27¢ | +8pp | $81 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t6.0 |
| Above 5.8% | 26¢ | −1pp | $279 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t5.8 |
| Above 6.1% | 23¢ | ±0 | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t6.1 |
| Above 5.6% | 22¢ | −55pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t5.6 |
| Above 6.6% | 15¢ | −1pp | $94 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t6.6 |
| Above 6.2% | 13¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t6.2 |
| Above 6.8% | 12¢ | −6pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t6.8 |
| Above 6.4% | 12¢ | −1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t6.4 |
| Above 7.0% | 9¢ | −1pp | $112 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t7.0 |
| Above 7.2% | 5¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t7.2 |
| Above 7.6% | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t7.6 |
| Above 7.4% | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t7.4 |
| Above 8.0% | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26jul15-t8.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 5.7% | Above 5.9% | Above 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | — | — | 36 |
| 2026-06-17 | 64 | 45 | 32 |
| 2026-06-19 | 68 | 42 | 26 |
| 2026-06-20 | 60 | 31 | 15 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 31 | 33 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 5.6% −55pp 77→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Above 5.8% −30pp 55→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Above 6.2% +12pp 10→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Above 6.0% −11pp 26→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Above 5.9% −11pp 42→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contracts tracks whether the U.S. Producer Price Index for final demand in April 2026 will exceed 3.4% year-over-year. An 88% probability indicates markets view inflation at this stage as likely to remain above this threshold. The current reading reflects broader expectations about commodity prices, labor costs, and supply-chain conditions through spring 2026. Key drivers include oil and energy prices, which heavily influence PPI, and whether wage pressures persist in transportation and manufacturing sectors. The April PPI data release, scheduled for early May, will definitively resolve this contract. Markets are currently pricing in a high likelihood that deflation pressures remain limited and input costs stay elevated relative to the 3.4% benchmark, though recent months' trends and Federal Reserve policy trajectory will influence final outcomes.

### Key factors

- April 2026 PPI release date and actual headline number relative to 3.4% year-over-year threshold
- Energy and crude oil price movements during the April measurement period
- Wage growth trends in goods-producing sectors affecting production costs
- Fed policy stance and interest rate expectations as of April, impacting cost-of-capital components
- Supply-chain disruption or normalization patterns reflected in transportation and material input costs

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usppiyoy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usppiyoy

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.