# Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 13, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 13 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust10ad
Updated: 2026-07-13T19:20:51.603Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: 4.5% or above at 90%
- Runner-up: 4.55% or above at 34%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $298

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5% or above | 90¢ | −6pp | $206 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-449-on-jul-kalshi-kxust10ad-26jul13-t4.49 |
| 4.55% or above | 34¢ | −12pp | $69 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-454-on-jul-kalshi-kxust10ad-26jul13-t4.54 |
| 4.6% or above | 26¢ | −18pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-459-on-jul-kalshi-kxust10ad-26jul13-t4.59 |
| 4.65% or above | 6¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-464-on-jul-kalshi-kxust10ad-26jul13-t4.64 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.5% or above | 4.55% or above | 4.6% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 80 | 63 | 25 |
| 2026-07-11 | — | 69 | 42 |
| 2026-07-12 | 74 | 57 | 24 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-12 · 4.6% or above −18pp 42→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · 4.6% or above +17pp 25→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · 4.55% or above −12pp 69→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · 4.65% or above −7pp 11→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · 4.5% or above −6pp 80→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that the 10-year Treasury yield will exceed 4.44% on July 13, 2026—just two days away. The 97% price suggests markets view this outcome as highly likely, with implied volatility suggesting minimal expected movement from current levels. The main drivers are inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy signals, and recent economic data that influence bond yields. The outcome will be determined by the Treasury yield's closing level on July 13, with any significant economic announcements or Fed communications between now and then potentially affecting the rate. The contract structure shows traders see declining probability for higher yield thresholds (4.54%, 4.59%, 4.64%), indicating limited appetite for substantial upside movement despite the near-certain baseline outcome.

### Key factors

- 10Y Treasury yield must close above 4.44% on July 13, 2026; current pricing implies minimal expected depreciation or appreciation over 2 days
- Market volume is concentrated in the 4.45%+ contract (97¢) with essentially zero 24h volume, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potential pricing staleness
- The contract ladder shows stepwise probability decline (96% at 4.50%, 60% at 4.55%, 41% at 4.60%), indicating asymmetric downside risk rather than upside
- Economic data releases scheduled between July 11-13 (if any) or unexpected Fed communications could trigger yield volatility
- Current 2-day timeframe minimizes time-decay effects but maximizes sensitivity to intraday Treasury market movements and corporate earnings announcements

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust10ad
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust10ad
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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