# Will 10Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.45%

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 1 contract — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust10m
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:48.726Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.45% | 7¢ | −5pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-10y-us-treasury-yield-for-month-end-be-above-kalshi-kxust10m-26jun30-t4.45 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 39 |
| 2026-06-12 | 41 |
| 2026-06-19 | 11 |
| 2026-06-26 | 6 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Above 4.45% +39pp 2→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 4.45% −20pp 31→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Above 4.45% −9pp 11→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 4.45% −9pp 40→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 4.45% −5pp 11→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 59% chance that the 10-year US Treasury yield closes June 2026 above 4.45%, implying traders expect moderately elevated rates. The probability reflects expectations around Federal Reserve policy trajectories, inflation data, and broader economic growth forecasts. Movements in this contract would likely follow monthly employment reports, inflation readings (CPI/PPI), and any Fed communications about interest rate plans. The June jobs report and PCE inflation data—due mid-month—typically drive significant rate repricing. If economic data signals persistent inflation or Fed hawkishness, yields could move higher; conversely, signs of cooling growth or moderating prices could push yields lower and reduce the probability. The contract settles on the last trading day of June based on month-end yields, so late-month economic data and Fed speakers could shift positioning into month-end.

### Key factors

- Monthly CPI and PCE inflation reports (due mid-June) will directly influence expectations for Fed rate decisions and long-term inflation expectations, which drive 10Y yields
- Employment data (June jobs report) indicating labor-market strength or weakness affects growth expectations and Fed policy outlook
- Current spread between the 4.45% and 4.70% contracts (59¢ vs 15¢) suggests traders see tail risk of significantly higher yields but expect yields more likely to stay below 4.70%
- Any unscheduled Fed communications or geopolitical events in the final week of June could cause rapid repricing as the settlement date approaches
- The 4.50% contract at parity (50¢) indicates near-even odds around that threshold, suggesting 4.45–4.50% is the market's expected trading range

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust10m
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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