# Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.10%

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 17 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust2
Updated: 2026-06-25T17:20:49.289Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.25% | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-2y-us-treasury-yield-before-month-end-be-abov-kalshi-kxust2-26jun30-t4.25 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 9 |
| 2026-06-12 | 20 |
| 2026-06-19 | 8 |
| 2026-06-25 | 3 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Above 4.25% +22pp 5→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 4.25% −22pp 27→5¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 65% probability that the 2-year US Treasury yield will close above 4.20% by June 30, 2026. The 2-year yield is sensitive to near-term Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data. Rising yields typically occur when markets price in higher-for-longer interest rates due to sticky inflation or hawkish Fed communications, while falling yields reflect expectations of rate cuts or cooling economic activity. The key driver of resolution will be the Fed's next policy decision and any accompanying inflation or employment reports over the final two weeks of June. Current positioning suggests markets see a two-in-three chance of yields remaining elevated through month-end, though only a one-in-six chance they breach 4.25%.

### Key factors

- Recent PCE or CPI inflation data releases and their implications for Fed rate-cut timing
- Federal Open Market Committee communications, meeting minutes, or scheduled speaker remarks in late June
- Economic data on labor market conditions or GDP growth that would influence Fed policy expectations
- The current 2-year yield level relative to 4.20% and 4.25% thresholds, including daily trading ranges
- Market pricing of Fed funds futures contracts for the July 2026 meeting and beyond

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust2
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust2
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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