# Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 6, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust2a
Updated: 2026-07-10T07:20:51.489Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-10

## Headline

- Probability: 60% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $4

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.95% or above | 60¢ | ±0 | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-394-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2a-26jul10-t3.94 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | 67 |
| 2026-07-05 | 61 |
| 2026-07-06 | 69 |
| 2026-07-07 | 61 |
| 2026-07-09 | 61 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-06 · 3.95% or above +8pp 61→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · 3.95% or above −8pp 69→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-05 · 3.95% or above −6pp 67→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 64% chance the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.19% by July 6, 2026. The current pricing reflects market expectations about Federal Reserve policy and inflation dynamics over the next two days. The primary drivers are recent economic data releases and Fed communications—stronger inflation readings or hawkish Fed signals would push yields higher, while softer economic data could lower them. The key catalyst is any scheduled economic announcements or Fed speakers between now and the July 6 close. With only two days until settlement, market pricing typically tightens substantially as concrete data emerges, leaving limited time for major directional shifts unless unexpected economic news surfaces.

### Key factors

- Current 2Y yield level and trajectory: the contract prices suggest the market is pricing the yield near or slightly below 4.19%, with the cheapest contract at 3¢ indicating extreme skepticism of an above-4.20% close
- Volatility concentration: the highest volume contract ($29 24h) targets only 4.14%, suggesting traders see the probability of yields remaining below 4.19% as substantial
- Two-day settlement window: with resolution in 48 hours, the market has minimal time to price in new information—only scheduled data releases or Fed communications would materially move the needle
- Fed communications risk: any unscheduled Fed speaker commentary or policy signals between July 4-6 could shift rate expectations
- Market consensus on monetary policy: the ladder of contracts (3.99% to 4.19%) maps incremental confidence levels, with declining prices at higher thresholds indicating diminishing conviction

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust2a
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust2a
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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