# Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 13 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust2ad
Updated: 2026-07-13T19:20:51.603Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: 4.1% or above at 97%
- Runner-up: 4.15% or above at 88%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $243

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1% or above | 97¢ | −4pp | $106 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-409-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2ad-26jul13-t4.09 |
| 4.15% or above | 88¢ | +1pp | $116 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-414-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2ad-26jul13-t4.14 |
| 4.25% or above | 24¢ | +8pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-424-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2ad-26jul13-t4.24 |
| 4.3% or above | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-429-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2ad-26jul13-t4.29 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.1% or above | 4.15% or above | 4.25% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 66 | 66 | 27 |
| 2026-07-11 | 93 | 70 | 14 |
| 2026-07-12 | 89 | 71 | 22 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-11 · 4.1% or above +27pp 66→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · 4.25% or above −13pp 27→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · 4.3% or above −10pp 14→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · 4.25% or above +8pp 14→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · 4.15% or above +4pp 66→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is pricing a 96% probability that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will close above 4.09% on July 13, 2026—tomorrow. The steep decline in contract prices as thresholds rise (from 96¢ at 4.09% to just 4¢ at 4.29%) indicates traders expect the yield to stay in a narrow range slightly above 4.09%, with very low odds of reaching 4.29% or higher. The current level reflects recent Federal Reserve communications, inflation data, and market expectations for short-term rates. Any significant overnight economic data, Fed commentary, or unexpected market moves could shift the yield materially. The resolution depends entirely on where the 2-year yield settles at market close tomorrow, making this a near-term event with minimal time for new information to emerge.

### Key factors

- Current 2Y yield level relative to 4.09% threshold: closer observation of intraday moves and overnight futures trading suggests where market-close positioning will land
- Recent Fed communications and rate expectations: any signals about future policy moves could shift near-term yield trajectories
- Overnight international markets and global rate movements: activity in Asian and European fixed-income markets can influence opening levels on U.S. markets
- Incoming U.S. economic data or central bank statements between now and market close: inflation, employment, or policy signals would be the primary catalyst for yield movement
- Volume concentration in 4.09%–4.14% contracts vs. extreme thinness at 4.29%: suggests consensus cluster rather than true tail-risk pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust2ad
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust2ad
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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