# Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.94% on Jul 31, 2026

> 3.95% or above leads at 89%, runner-up 87% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust2am
Updated: 2026-07-09T20:20:49.462Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-31

## Headline

- Leader: 3.95% or above at 89%
- Runner-up: 4% or above at 87%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $294

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.95% or above | 89¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-394-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2am-26jul31-t3.94 |
| 4% or above | 87¢ | +17pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-399-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2am-26jul31-t3.99 |
| 4.05% or above | 83¢ | +28pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-404-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2am-26jul31-t4.04 |
| 4.1% or above | 83¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-409-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2am-26jul31-t4.09 |
| 4.2% or above | 56¢ | +6pp | $155 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-419-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2am-26jul31-t4.19 |
| 4.15% or above | 56¢ | +2pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-414-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2am-26jul31-t4.14 |
| 4.25% or above | 34¢ | +5pp | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-424-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2am-26jul31-t4.24 |
| 4.3% or above | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-429-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2am-26jul31-t4.29 |
| 4.35% or above | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-2y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-434-on-jul-kalshi-kxust2am-26jul31-t4.34 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 3.95% or above | 4% or above | 4.05% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 76 | 73 | 60 |
| 2026-07-08 | — | 90 | 88 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · 4.05% or above +28pp 60→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · 4% or above +17pp 73→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · 4.1% or above +12pp 71→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · 4.2% or above +6pp 41→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · 4.25% or above +5pp 30→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 3.94% by July 31, 2026—roughly three weeks from now. The 97% probability reflects market expectations that yields will remain above this threshold through month-end. The 2-year yield moves primarily on Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation data. With the Fed's current stance and recent economic reports, markets are pricing in a very high likelihood that Treasury yields stay in their recent trading range or higher. Key incoming catalysts include the July jobs report (scheduled for early August, after resolution) and any inflation readings in the final weeks of July. The contract's tight clustering of other outcome prices—with 83¢ on yields above 3.99%—suggests moderate uncertainty about higher levels, but strong conviction that yields won't fall below 3.94%.

### Key factors

- Current 2-year yields trading near or above 4.0% as of mid-July 2026, making a drop below 3.94% in three weeks less likely absent significant economic deterioration
- Federal Reserve guidance and inflation expectations are the primary drivers; any signals of rate cuts would pressure yields downward, while inflation surprises upward would support higher yields
- The contract shows a sharp drop-off in probability at 3.99% and above levels (83¢), indicating the market sees most risk in a narrow range near current rates rather than a dramatic move in either direction
- Only 3 weeks remain until settlement, limiting the time window for substantial yield shifts from policy or data surprises
- Trading volume remains relatively light on most outcome contracts, suggesting limited institutional hedging or directional positioning

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust2am
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust2am
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.