# Will 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 5.25%

> Above 5.25% leads at 4%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust30
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.607Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-29

## Headline

- Leader: Above 5.25% at 4%
- Runner-up: Above 5.20% at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.25% | 4¢ | −1pp | $884 | kalshi | /markets/will-30y-us-treasury-yield-before-month-end-be-abo-kalshi-kxust30-26may29-t5.25 |
| Above 5.20% | 3¢ | −5pp | $784 | kalshi | /markets/will-30y-us-treasury-yield-before-month-end-be-abo-kalshi-kxust30-26may29-t5.20 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 5.25% | Above 5.20% |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | 19 | 30 |
| 2026-05-21 | 29 | 41 |
| 2026-05-27 | 6 | 7 |
| 2026-05-28 | 5 | — |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · Above 5.25% −21pp 50→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Above 5.20% −18pp 59→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Above 5.25% −16pp 29→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Above 5.20% −16pp 27→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-25 · Above 5.20% +16pp 11→27¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the 30-year US Treasury yield will exceed 5.25% at some point before May 31, 2026. The 78% probability on the slightly lower 5.20% threshold suggests traders see elevated rates as likely near-term, driven by persistent inflation concerns and Federal Reserve policy expectations. The key tension is whether rates rise further or stabilize around current levels. Treasury yields respond to inflation data, Fed communications, and broader economic data releases through month-end, with any significant economic reports potentially shifting expectations. The spread between the 78% probability at 5.20% and 58% at 5.25% indicates meaningful uncertainty about how much higher yields might climb, suggesting traders see a clear path past 5.20% but less certainty about breaching the higher threshold.

### Key factors

- The 30Y yield was trading in a range where crossing 5.25% required a notable move beyond current market expectations, but not an extreme one
- Monthly CPI and employment data through late May could trigger material yield shifts depending on inflation or labor market signals
- Federal Reserve messaging and dot-plot expectations significantly influence long-duration Treasury pricing and forward rate expectations
- The 52% probability at 5.30% versus 78% at 5.20% reveals a steep probability decline at higher yield levels, indicating market consensus clusters around the 5.20-5.25% band
- Day-to-day volatility in Treasury markets means intraday yield spikes above 5.25% are possible but sustaining that level through month-end carries distinct probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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