# Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 6, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust30a
Updated: 2026-07-10T07:20:51.489Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-10

## Headline

- Leader: 4.95% or above at 86%
- Runner-up: 5% or above at 73%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $166

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.95% or above | 86¢ | +11pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-494-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30a-26jul10-t4.94 |
| 5% or above | 73¢ | +9pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-499-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30a-26jul10-t4.99 |
| 5.1% or above | 29¢ | +5pp | $153 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-509-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30a-26jul10-t5.09 |
| 5.15% or above | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-514-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30a-26jul10-t5.14 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.95% or above | 5% or above | 5.1% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | 99 | — | — |
| 2026-07-06 | 16 | 61 | 2 |
| 2026-07-07 | 8 | 45 | 15 |
| 2026-07-08 | 75 | 54 | 24 |
| 2026-07-09 | 86 | — | 29 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-06 · 4.95% or above −83pp 99→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · 4.95% or above +67pp 8→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · 5% or above −16pp 61→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · 5.1% or above +13pp 2→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-07 · 5.15% or above +12pp 2→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 72% chance that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.79% by July 6, 2026—two days from now. The probability reflects expectations about near-term bond market movement driven by interest rate expectations and inflation data. With limited time to resolution, the outcome depends primarily on economic data releases, Federal Reserve communications, and global risk sentiment over the next 48 hours. The spread between contract prices (55¢ for 4.79% versus 19¢ for 5%+) suggests markets view yields staying in a relatively narrow band, with meaningful probability concentrated in the 4.79% to 4.99% range rather than extreme moves in either direction. Very little trading volume indicates low participation, which may limit confidence in these estimates.

### Key factors

- The 30Y yield closed near 4.79% on July 3-4, placing it at the threshold of the leading contract outcome
- Upcoming employment or inflation data between now and July 6 could shift Treasury yields by 10-20 basis points in either direction
- Federal Reserve speakers or economic commentary over the next 48 hours represents the primary catalyst for repricing long-duration bonds
- Contract pricing shows declining probability at higher yield thresholds (40¢ at 4.94%, 19¢ at 5.00%), indicating tail-risk hedging rather than conviction in major moves
- Near-zero 24-hour trading volume on all five contracts suggests limited market depth and potentially stale pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust30a
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust30a
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.