# Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 13, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 13 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust30ad
Updated: 2026-07-13T19:20:51.603Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: 5.05% or above at 84%
- Runner-up: 5.1% or above at 79%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $456

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.05% or above | 84¢ | +18pp | $98 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-504-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30ad-26jul13-t5.04 |
| 5.1% or above | 79¢ | −20pp | $356 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-509-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30ad-26jul13-t5.09 |
| 5.2% or above | 6¢ | −19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-519-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30ad-26jul13-t5.19 |
| 5.15% or above | 3¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-514-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30ad-26jul13-t5.14 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 5.05% or above | 5.1% or above | 5.2% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 64 | 37 | 25 |
| 2026-07-11 | 58 | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 76 | 17 | 6 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-12 · 5.1% or above −20pp 37→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · 5.2% or above −19pp 25→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · 5.05% or above +18pp 58→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · 5.15% or above −12pp 14→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · 5.05% or above −6pp 64→58¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects near-certain conviction that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.99% on July 13, 2026. The 97% probability indicates traders expect yields to remain above this threshold through tomorrow, with contracts pricing progressively lower odds as yield targets rise (96% for 4.99%, 68% for 5.04%, 16% for 5.09%). Treasury yields are sensitive to inflation data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and global rate expectations. The immediate resolution occurs at market close on July 13, making this a very short-duration bet with minimal time for new information to arrive. Current positioning suggests minimal tail risk of a sudden yield collapse below 4.99%, though geopolitical shocks, unexpected economic data, or Fed communications could theoretically shift longer-term rate expectations. The market structure shows declining conviction at higher yield thresholds, indicating genuine uncertainty about whether yields will substantially exceed 5% even as consensus leans strongly toward the base case.

### Key factors

- 30Y Treasury yields closed July 12 near or above 4.99%, making tomorrow's maintenance of this level the base expectation with only overnight gaps creating downside risk
- Federal Reserve policy stance and inflation expectations anchor long-term yield levels; any unexpected economic data or Fed communications between now and market close could move yields materially
- The 24-hour volume concentration ($221 on the 5.09% contract versus $2 on the 4.99% contract) suggests active disagreement on upper-bound outcomes but strong consensus on the sub-5% base case
- Geopolitical events, credit market stress, or flight-to-quality flows could rapidly drive yields downward, though the 97% price implies such scenarios carry minimal market-assigned probability
- Resolution occurs within 24 hours with no major scheduled economic releases expected, limiting new catalysts that could alter the current yield trajectory

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust30ad
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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