# Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.89% on Jul 31, 2026

> 4.8% or above leads at 95%, runner-up 93% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust30am
Updated: 2026-07-09T20:20:49.858Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-31

## Headline

- Leader: 4.8% or above at 95%
- Runner-up: 4.85% or above at 93%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $241

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.8% or above | 95¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-479-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30am-26jul31-t4.79 |
| 4.85% or above | 93¢ | +24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-484-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30am-26jul31-t4.84 |
| 4.9% or above | 84¢ | +23pp | $41 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-489-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30am-26jul31-t4.89 |
| 4.95% or above | 80¢ | +19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-494-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30am-26jul31-t4.94 |
| 5% or above | 66¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-499-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30am-26jul31-t4.99 |
| 5.05% or above | 51¢ | +14pp | $44 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-504-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30am-26jul31-t5.04 |
| 5.1% or above | 49¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-509-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30am-26jul31-t5.09 |
| 5.15% or above | 32¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-514-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30am-26jul31-t5.14 |
| 5.2% or above | 24¢ | −11pp | $156 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-30y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-519-on-jul-kalshi-kxust30am-26jul31-t5.19 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.8% or above | 4.85% or above | 4.9% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 80 | 67 | 62 |
| 2026-07-08 | — | 91 | 85 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · 4.85% or above +24pp 67→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · 4.9% or above +23pp 62→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · 4.95% or above +19pp 64→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · 5.05% or above +14pp 35→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · 5.1% or above +14pp 22→36¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 95% probability that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.89% by July 31, 2026—roughly three weeks away. The tight timeframe means the yield needs only modest movement from current levels to resolve affirmatively. The leading contract shows similar confidence (95%) for a 4.79% threshold, while progressively lower probabilities appear at higher yield levels (31% at 5.04%, 18% at 5.14%), indicating traders expect yields to remain in a narrow band rather than spike significantly. The main drivers are Fed policy expectations, inflation data releases, and broader Treasury market demand through month-end. The July employment report (expected mid-month) and any Fed communications could shift sentiment, but the high probability reflects limited volatility expected in the remaining trading days before expiration.

### Key factors

- The 30Y Treasury yield would need to fall below 4.89% to resolve negatively—a move of roughly 15-20 basis points downward from levels typically implied by the contract pricing structure
- Only three weeks remain until July 31 settlement, limiting time for large yield moves driven by macroeconomic shocks
- Kalshi trading volume is moderate ($40 on the specific 4.89% contract, $366 across higher thresholds), suggesting specialized rather than retail-driven positioning
- The probability ladder shows geometric decay above 4.89% (95% → 84% → 31% → 18%), indicating markets assign declining odds to higher yield outcomes but don't price them as impossible
- Mid-July employment and inflation data releases represent the primary scheduled events that could materially shift 30-year yield expectations before expiration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust30am
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust30am
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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