# Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.95%

> Above 5.30% leads at 20%, runner-up 13% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust30m
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:50.971Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 5.30% at 20%
- Runner-up: Above 4.95% at 13%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.30% | 20¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-30y-us-treasury-yield-for-month-end-be-above-kalshi-kxust30m-26jun30-t5.30 |
| Above 4.95% | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-30y-us-treasury-yield-for-month-end-be-above-kalshi-kxust30m-26jun30-t4.95 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 5.30% | Above 4.95% |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 22 | 17 |
| 2026-06-12 | 3 | 62 |
| 2026-06-18 | 20 | 42 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 43 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 4 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Above 4.95% −41pp 43→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 4.95% −19pp 24→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Above 4.95% +16pp 2→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Above 4.95% +9pp 18→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 4.95% −3pp 27→24¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a two-in-three chance that the 30-year US Treasury yield will close June above 4.95%. This reflects uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and inflation dynamics over the coming weeks. The yield level matters because it signals market expectations for long-term borrowing costs, which affects mortgage rates, bond valuations, and investment decisions. Upward pressure would come from hotter-than-expected inflation data or Fed communication suggesting sustained higher rates; downward pressure would come from economic weakness or shifting Fed expectations toward rate cuts. The key catalyst will be inflation readings and any Fed communications before month-end, particularly June's CPI release and any policy guidance.

### Key factors

- Current 30Y Treasury yield relative to 4.95% strike—the yield's starting position on June 3 determines how much movement is needed in either direction
- Market expectations for the June CPI release and PCE deflator, scheduled mid-to-late June, which heavily influence Treasury pricing
- Fed communication or policy signals between now and June 30, including any FOMC decisions or chairman statements regarding rate hold or cut timing
- Spread between the 15-cent (5.30%) and 67-cent (4.95%) contracts suggests markets see higher probabilities of yields staying below 5.30% but meaningful uncertainty within the 4.95–5.30% range
- 24-hour trading volume concentrated in the 5.00% contract ($332) relative to others, indicating active price discovery around the 5.00% level as a key pivot point

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust30m
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust30m
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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