# Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.25%

> Above 4.30% leads at 4%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust5
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:51.108Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4.30% at 4%
- Runner-up: Above 4.35% at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.30% | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-5y-us-treasury-yield-before-month-end-be-abov-kalshi-kxust5-26jun30-t4.30 |
| Above 4.35% | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-5y-us-treasury-yield-before-month-end-be-abov-kalshi-kxust5-26jun30-t4.35 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4.30% | Above 4.35% |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 37 | 35 |
| 2026-06-12 | 3 | 5 |
| 2026-06-19 | 3 | 5 |
| 2026-06-26 | 7 | 7 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Above 4.30% +28pp 2→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 4.30% −28pp 33→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above 4.30% −22pp 25→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above 4.35% −9pp 14→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 4.35% −9pp 15→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market is pricing a strong 89% likelihood that the 5-year US Treasury yield will exceed 4.25% by June 30, 2026. This reflects current economic conditions and expectations about Federal Reserve policy, inflation, and credit demand through month-end. The high probability suggests traders believe yields have momentum upward or are already elevated relative to this threshold. Key drivers include incoming inflation data, Fed communications about interest rate policy, and economic growth signals. The contract structure shows meaningful disagreement at higher thresholds—only 50% odds above 4.30%—indicating uncertainty about whether yields will push significantly higher. Any major economic data miss or dovish Fed pivot could reduce yields below the 4.25% level, while persistent inflation or hawkish commentary could push yields higher. The narrow 28-day window limits the timeframe for resolution, focusing attention on near-term economic indicators and policy signals.

### Key factors

- Current 5-year yield level relative to 4.25% and recent trading range; the 89% probability implies yields are either already above or very close to this threshold
- Probability cliff between 4.25% (89%) and 4.30% (50%) suggests the market sees material resistance above 4.30%, with significant disagreement on further upside
- June inflation data release and any remaining Fed communications this month would be primary catalysts affecting near-term yield direction
- Economic growth expectations and credit conditions; weaker-than-expected data could trigger a yield decline below 4.25% despite current high probability
- Liquidity and positioning in Treasury markets; thin volume on higher-threshold contracts ($2-7M in 24h) suggests modest real-money conviction at present levels

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust5
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust5
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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