# Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 6 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust5a
Updated: 2026-07-17T07:20:52.187Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-17

## Headline

- Leader: 4.1% or above at 96%
- Runner-up: 4.15% or above at 94%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1% or above | 96¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-409-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5a-26jul17-t4.09 |
| 4.15% or above | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-414-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5a-26jul17-t4.14 |
| 4.2% or above | 82¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-419-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5a-26jul17-t4.19 |
| 4.25% or above | 56¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-424-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5a-26jul17-t4.24 |
| 4.3% or above | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-429-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5a-26jul17-t4.29 |
| 4.35% or above | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-434-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5a-26jul17-t4.34 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.1% or above | 4.15% or above | 4.2% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 97 | 93 | 80 |
| 2026-07-16 | 95 | 94 | 82 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market assesses whether the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield will close above 4.04% on July 17, 2026—tomorrow. The 97% probability reflects near-certainty that yields will remain above this threshold. Treasury yields are driven primarily by Federal Reserve policy expectations and inflation dynamics; a significant downward move would require either unexpected economic weakness, a shift toward rate cuts, or deflationary signals. The immediate resolution tomorrow means the outcome depends almost entirely on overnight market movements and any pre-market data releases. With 24-hour trading volume at zero and contracts widely clustered above 94 cents, traders show strong consensus that the 4.04% level will hold, though the contract ladder reveals diminishing conviction at higher yield thresholds—96 cents for 4.05% versus 56 cents for 4.25%.

### Key factors

- Current 5Y yield is priced above 4.04% with only one trading day remaining before resolution, leaving minimal time for large directional shifts
- Volume is zero across all contracts in the past 24 hours, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potential illiquidity if positions need to be adjusted
- The contract price ladder shows declining probability for progressively higher yields (97% for 4.05%, 56% for 4.25%), indicating asymmetric risk above current levels
- No scheduled major economic data releases or Fed communications are typically expected on the final trading day before resolution
- The gap between the leader (97%) and runner-up (96%) is one percentage point, reflecting minimal market disagreement on the core outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust5a
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust5a
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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