# Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 11 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust5ad
Updated: 2026-07-13T19:20:51.603Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: 4.15% or above at 92%
- Runner-up: 4.2% or above at 92%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $927

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.15% or above | 92¢ | +27pp | $55 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-414-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5ad-26jul13-t4.14 |
| 4.2% or above | 92¢ | +17pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-419-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5ad-26jul13-t4.19 |
| 4.25% or above | 90¢ | −19pp | $64 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-424-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5ad-26jul13-t4.24 |
| 4.3% or above | 33¢ | −3pp | $112 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-429-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5ad-26jul13-t4.29 |
| 4.35% or above | 16¢ | −2pp | $646 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-434-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5ad-26jul13-t4.34 |
| 4.4% or above | 4¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-439-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5ad-26jul13-t4.39 |
| 4.45% or above | 3¢ | −22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-5y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-444-on-jul-kalshi-kxust5ad-26jul13-t4.44 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.15% or above | 4.2% or above | 4.25% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 67 | 77 | 60 |
| 2026-07-11 | — | — | 89 |
| 2026-07-12 | 94 | 94 | 70 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-11 · 4.25% or above +29pp 60→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · 4.15% or above +27pp 67→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · 4.35% or above −25pp 40→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · 4.45% or above −22pp 25→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · 4.25% or above −19pp 89→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing an 88% chance that the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield closes at 4.25% or higher on July 13, 2026. This reflects expectations about inflation data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and near-term bond market dynamics. The high probability suggests traders believe yields will remain elevated above that threshold. Key drivers include recent inflation reports, Fed communications about interest rate policy, and broader economic growth expectations. The most immediate catalyst would be any new economic data released between now and market close on July 13. The contract structure shows progressively lower probabilities for higher yield levels—only 17% chance of exceeding 4.34%—indicating consensus that yields will stay in a relatively narrow range rather than spike significantly higher.

### Key factors

- Current 5Y yield level relative to 4.24% threshold and recent intraday trading range
- Inflation expectations and any CPI or PCE data scheduled for release before market close on July 13
- Federal Reserve communications, rate guidance, or policy signals affecting near-term rate expectations
- Flight-to-safety demand versus risk appetite in equity markets, which typically inverse yields
- Technical support/resistance levels and month-end bond portfolio positioning patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust5ad
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust5ad
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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