# Will 5Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.20%

> Above 4.20% leads at 7%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust5m
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:50.857Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4.20% at 7%
- Runner-up: Above 4.25% at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.20% | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-5y-us-treasury-yield-for-month-end-be-above-4-kalshi-kxust5m-26jun30-t4.20 |
| Above 4.25% | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-5y-us-treasury-yield-for-month-end-be-above-4-kalshi-kxust5m-26jun30-t4.25 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4.20% | Above 4.25% |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 30 | 25 |
| 2026-06-11 | 72 | 32 |
| 2026-06-12 | 72 | — |
| 2026-06-19 | 23 | 2 |
| 2026-06-26 | 15 | 4 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Above 4.20% +33pp 2→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Above 4.25% +33pp 2→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 4.20% −25pp 27→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 4.25% −21pp 27→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 4.20% −20pp 37→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 6% probability that the five-year US Treasury yield will close above 4.20% at the end of June 2026. The low odds suggest traders expect yields to remain below that threshold, which typically occurs when bond markets price in lower growth expectations or falling inflation. The 5Y yield responds to Federal Reserve policy expectations, inflation data, and employment reports. Key drivers include the Fed's interest rate path and whether economic data over the next two weeks supports higher or lower rates. The June employment report (expected early July) and any Fed communications would be the main catalysts that could shift these probabilities significantly. Current market pricing reflects relatively stable expectations around Treasury yields staying contained in the near term.

### Key factors

- 5Y Treasury yield last traded below 4.20% threshold; current market levels and recent trading range are consistent with contract odds
- Federal Reserve policy stance and forward guidance on rate cuts or holds significantly influences 5Y yield expectations
- Inflation data and PCE readings released before month-end could shift expectations for the 5Y curve
- Employment and economic growth data affecting recession probabilities directly impacts Treasury demand and yield levels
- Volume and open interest on related contracts remain minimal ($0 24h volume), suggesting limited recent market activity and potential for wider bid-ask spreads

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust5m
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust5m
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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