# Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 6 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust7a
Updated: 2026-07-17T07:20:52.187Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-17

## Headline

- Leader: 4.25% or above at 96%
- Runner-up: 4.3% or above at 91%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.25% or above | 96¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-424-on-jul-kalshi-kxust7a-26jul17-t4.24 |
| 4.3% or above | 91¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-429-on-jul-kalshi-kxust7a-26jul17-t4.29 |
| 4.35% or above | 75¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-434-on-jul-kalshi-kxust7a-26jul17-t4.34 |
| 4.4% or above | 48¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-439-on-jul-kalshi-kxust7a-26jul17-t4.39 |
| 4.45% or above | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-444-on-jul-kalshi-kxust7a-26jul17-t4.44 |
| 4.5% or above | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-449-on-jul-kalshi-kxust7a-26jul17-t4.49 |
| 4.55% or above | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-454-on-jul-kalshi-kxust7a-26jul17-t4.54 |
| 4.6% or above | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-459-on-jul-kalshi-kxust7a-26jul17-t4.59 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.25% or above | 4.3% or above | 4.35% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | 96 | 91 | 74 |
| 2026-07-16 | — | — | 75 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market is pricing in a 96% chance that the 7-year U.S. Treasury yield closes at or above 4.25% on July 17, 2026—essentially tomorrow from the current date. The probability reflects strong consensus that yields will remain in a narrow band above this threshold. Treasury yields are driven by expectations around inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and broader economic growth. The main factors supporting higher yields include persistent inflation concerns or expectations of sustained higher interest rates, while a flight-to-safety bid or shift in inflation expectations could push yields lower. The resolution occurs at market close tomorrow, so the primary catalyst is intraday trading activity and any final economic data or Fed commentary released before then. The contract ladder shows declining conviction at higher yield levels, with only 22% probability assigned to yields exceeding 4.45%.

### Key factors

- Current market price implies 96% odds of closing above 4.25%, leaving only 4% probability of a sub-4.25% close
- The 7Y yield has remained structurally above 4.24% with sufficient stability that nearly all derivatives traders are positioned for that outcome to persist
- Liquidity in the underlying Treasury market on July 17 will determine actual execution; zero 24-hour volume across these contracts suggests minimal recent price discovery
- The probability gradient (96% → 91% → 74% as thresholds rise) indicates traders assign meaningful but declining odds to yields reaching 4.30%, 4.35%, or higher
- With resolution occurring within hours, overnight futures trading and opening U.S. market action will be the primary mechanism to resolve this contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust7a
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust7a
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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