# Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 13 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust7ad
Updated: 2026-07-13T19:20:51.603Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: 4.4% or above at 84%
- Runner-up: 4.5% or above at 8%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $207

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4% or above | 84¢ | +35pp | $185 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-439-on-jul-kalshi-kxust7ad-26jul13-t4.39 |
| 4.5% or above | 8¢ | −7pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-449-on-jul-kalshi-kxust7ad-26jul13-t4.49 |
| 4.6% or above | 3¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7y-us-treasury-yield-be-above-459-on-jul-kalshi-kxust7ad-26jul13-t4.59 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 4.4% or above | 4.5% or above | 4.6% or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 34 | 11 | 12 |
| 2026-07-11 | 39 | 12 | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 74 | 5 | 3 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-12 · 4.4% or above +35pp 39→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · 4.6% or above −9pp 12→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · 4.5% or above −7pp 12→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · 4.4% or above +5pp 34→39¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 7Y Treasury yield is priced to stay above 4.24% through July 13, 2026, with traders assigning 97% probability to this outcome. This reflects expectations about near-term interest rate levels, which depend primarily on Federal Reserve policy signals and inflation data. The yield could move lower if incoming economic data weakens demand for credit or if Fed officials signal dovish pivot; it could move higher if inflation remains sticky or growth surprises to the upside. The main catalyst for resolution is the CPI release scheduled for mid-July, which typically influences rate expectations. Traders show high confidence in the 4.24% floor but much lower conviction above 4.34%, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about how far yields might climb. Volume concentration in the tightest contracts indicates active two-way pricing on the exact level rather than a consensus certainty.

### Key factors

- The 97% probability on the 4.25%+ contract is supported by $489 in 24-hour volume, indicating genuine market participation rather than thin liquidity.
- Probability drops sharply to 60% at 4.39% and near zero at 4.44%, showing traders expect yields in a narrow band rather than a decisive break higher.
- The CPI data release mid-July will be the primary driver of movement in 7-year Treasury yields in the two days before settlement.
- Current 7Y yield level relative to Fed funds expectations and the term premium will determine whether a 4.24% floor holds or breaks.
- The gap between 97% confidence at 4.25% and 90% at 4.29% suggests only modest expected movement in a two-day window.

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ust7ad
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ust7ad
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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