# Will US test scores in Math decline

> Significant decrease leads at 70%, runner-up 25% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ustestsmath
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:22.981Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Significant decrease at 70%
- Runner-up: No significant difference at 25%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $46

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Significant decrease | 70¢ | +1pp | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-test-scores-in-math-decline-significant-de-kalshi-kxustestsmath-26-sd |
| No significant difference | 25¢ | −6pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-test-scores-in-math-decline-no-significant-kalshi-kxustestsmath-26-nsd |
| Significant increase | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-test-scores-in-math-decline-significant-in-kalshi-kxustestsmath-26-si |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Significant decrease | No significant difference | Significant increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 56 | 33 | 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | 56 | 34 | 5 |
| 2026-04-25 | 56 | 32 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 57 | 31 | 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | 70 | 23 | 4 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Significant decrease +12pp 57→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · No significant difference −6pp 29→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · No significant difference −4pp 30→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · No significant difference +3pp 26→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The current 57% probability indicates that markets view a decline in US Math test scores as more likely than not over the specified timeframe. This assessment reflects ongoing concerns about educational outcomes, potential curriculum changes, and shifts in student preparation methods. The probability level suggests genuine uncertainty rather than consensus—nearly half the probability mass sits on no decline occurring. Key drivers include recent standardized test data trends, the implementation of new educational policies, and macroeconomic factors affecting school resources. Resolution will depend on official test score releases from organizations like NAEP or state education departments, which typically occur on announced schedules throughout 2026. The specific threshold and comparison period will determine whether this resolves affirmatively.

### Key factors

- Historical trend direction: Recent NAEP and state standardized test results show whether Math scores have been declining, stable, or improving in the years leading to 2026
- Policy and curriculum changes: Implementation of new educational standards, teaching methodologies, or assessment structures that could measurably affect performance
- School resource allocation: Funding levels, teacher availability, and investment in STEM programs that directly influence instructional quality
- Student demographics and test participation: Changes in the population taking tests and baseline preparation levels that affect aggregate score comparisons
- Official data release dates: When authoritative test results become available to settle the prediction, typically through education department publications or NAEP reporting cycles

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ustestsmath
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ustestsmath

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.