# Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.25%

> Above 4.10% leads at 75%, runner-up 59% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ustm
Updated: 2026-06-24T11:20:50.675Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4.10% at 75%
- Runner-up: Above 4.00% at 59%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $104

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.10% | 75¢ | +5pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-2y-us-treasury-yield-for-month-end-be-above-4-kalshi-kxustm-26jun30-t4.10 |
| Above 4.00% | 59¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-2y-us-treasury-yield-for-month-end-be-above-4-kalshi-kxustm-26jun30-t4.00 |
| Above 4.05% | 53¢ | +22pp | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-2y-us-treasury-yield-for-month-end-be-above-4-kalshi-kxustm-26jun30-t4.05 |
| Above 4.15% | 35¢ | +13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-2y-us-treasury-yield-for-month-end-be-above-4-kalshi-kxustm-26jun30-t4.15 |
| Above 4.20% | 14¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-2y-us-treasury-yield-for-month-end-be-above-4-kalshi-kxustm-26jun30-t4.20 |
| Above 4.25% | 9¢ | −19pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-2y-us-treasury-yield-for-month-end-be-above-4-kalshi-kxustm-26jun30-t4.25 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4.10% | Above 4.00% | Above 4.05% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 46 | 40 | 51 |
| 2026-06-11 | 36 | 72 | 70 |
| 2026-06-17 | 28 | 67 | 61 |
| 2026-06-24 | 56 | 55 | 76 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Above 4.15% +50pp 2→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Above 4.05% +33pp 34→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 4.05% −32pp 66→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Above 4.20% +28pp 7→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-17 · Above 4.05% +27pp 34→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 75% probability that the 2-year US Treasury yield will close above 4.00% at month-end June 2026, with progressively lower odds for higher yield thresholds. The 2-year yield reflects market expectations about near-term Federal Reserve policy and short-term inflation dynamics. Current pricing suggests traders believe rates are more likely to stay elevated than fall materially, though the sharp drop-off at higher levels (15% probability above 4.15%) indicates significant uncertainty about sustained upside moves. The key drivers are inflation data, Fed communications, and labor market conditions over the next 16 days. Month-end positioning and Treasury supply dynamics could also influence yield levels as the resolution date approaches.

### Key factors

- Current 2Y yield is tracking relative to the 4.00% threshold; any CPI or employment report before June 30 could shift market expectations directionally
- The contract structure shows 75% confidence in above-4.00% but only 6% confidence in above-4.20%, indicating a consensus narrow trading range rather than broad agreement on direction
- Volume across all contracts is zero in the last 24 hours, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect overnight market moves
- Fed speakers, PCE inflation data (if released before month-end), or jobless claims would be the primary catalysts to resolve uncertainty in either direction
- The June 30 month-end settlement eliminates tail-risk scenarios; any major economic surprise must occur within the next two weeks to meaningfully reprice these contracts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ustm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ustm
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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