# Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%

> Above 4.00% leads at 94%, runner-up 92% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ustyld
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.392Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4.00% at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 4.10% at 92%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.00% | 94¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t4.00 |
| Above 4.10% | 92¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t4.10 |
| Above 4.20% | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t4.20 |
| Above 4.50% | 92¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t4.50 |
| Above 4.40% | 90¢ | +2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t4.40 |
| Above 4.30% | 90¢ | +2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t4.30 |
| Above 4.90% | 46¢ | +34pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t4.90 |
| Above 5.00% | 43¢ | +29pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t5.00 |
| Above 4.70% | 21¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t4.70 |
| Above 4.60% | 15¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t4.60 |
| Above 4.80% | 11¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t4.80 |
| Above 5.20% | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t5.20 |
| Above 5.10% | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t5.10 |
| Above 5.30% | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t5.30 |
| Above 5.40% | 6¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ust-par-yield-curve-30y-for-q2-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxustyld-30y26jun30-t5.40 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4.00% | Above 4.10% | Above 4.20% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| 2026-05-07 | 91 | 90 | 90 |
| 2026-05-08 | 93 | 92 | 91 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Above 4.90% +34pp 11→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Above 5.00% +29pp 13→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Above 5.00% +10pp 3→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Above 4.60% −9pp 21→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Above 4.80% +9pp 9→18¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ustyld
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ustyld

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.