# Who will win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 17 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usvigov
Updated: 2026-09-24T13:20:51.813Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Stacey Plaskett at 84%
- Runner-up: Adlah “Foncie” Donastorg at 3%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Plaskett | 84¢ | −2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-us-virgin-islands-gubernator-kalshi-kxusvigov-26-spla |
| Adlah “Foncie” Donastorg | 3¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-us-virgin-islands-gubernator-kalshi-kxusvigov-26-adon |
| Warren Mosler | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-us-virgin-islands-gubernator-kalshi-kxusvigov-26-wmos |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Stacey Plaskett | Adlah “Foncie” Donastorg | Warren Mosler |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 89 | — | 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | 82 | — | 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | — | — | 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | 70 | 1 | — |
| 2026-09-11 | 86 | — | — |
| 2026-09-17 | 37 | 3 | — |
| 2026-09-18 | 86 | — | — |
| 2026-09-19 | 84 | — | — |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Stacey Plaskett +49pp 37→86¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Prediction markets currently price Stacey Plaskett as a 74% favorite to win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election, meaning traders estimate roughly three-in-four odds she will be the next governor. Plaskett, a former U.S. House delegate, holds a commanding lead over the next-closest candidate at 6%. Her advantage likely reflects name recognition, incumbency association, and recent polling or endorsement data, though the race remains contested with multiple viable challengers. The November 2026 general election will resolve this market. Key uncertainties include potential changes in campaign momentum, turnout dynamics, and whether undecided voters in the territory lean toward Plaskett or fragment among alternative candidates. Trading volume on Plaskett's contract ($16 in 24-hour volume) is significantly higher than alternatives, suggesting market participants view her as the decisive favorite but remain active in pricing near-term shifts.

### Key factors

- Plaskett holds a 68-point probability gap over the second-place candidate, indicating market consensus on a substantial but not insurmountable lead
- The four alternative candidates collectively price at roughly 21%, leaving meaningful uncertainty about who prevails if Plaskett loses ground
- Highest trading volume concentrates on Plaskett's contract ($16 24h vol vs. $3–$6 for others), suggesting confidence in her position but active repricing during the campaign
- The general election is scheduled for November 2026, approximately 16 months away, leaving substantial time for campaign dynamics, polling shifts, and endorsements to alter probabilities
- Multi-candidate race structure means Plaskett wins if she receives plurality or majority support, depending on territory election rules, creating different pathways than a two-candidate contest

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/usvigov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=usvigov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.