# UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

> Ben McAdams leads at 75%, runner-up 20% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ut01-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.975Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-23

## Headline

- Leader: Ben McAdams at 75%
- Runner-up: Nate Blouin at 20%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben McAdams | 75¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ut-01-democratic-primary-winner-ben-mcadams-polymarket-0x89c32a0f93d0fb5b46225e4ac76f3e00a8614f55e6aa365e0152d5ee92722a81 |
| Nate Blouin | 20¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ut-01-democratic-primary-winner-nate-blouin-polymarket-0x49f4f5e99bc76806bdce33713e6958a3a35c55405d909b9f546b2632d9ec55c3 |
| Liban Mohamed | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ut-01-democratic-primary-winner-liban-mohamed-polymarket-0xba9267cbe35ba4637c9847d2ef4413a77309c8fc0a51d7042e7669707e12ff96 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ben McAdams | Nate Blouin | Liban Mohamed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 57 | 38 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 75 | 22 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 75 | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 71 | 27 | 21 |
| 2026-05-02 | 69 | 25 | 17 |
| 2026-05-03 | 73 | 21 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 73 | — | 11 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 9 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Nate Blouin −4pp 25→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Liban Mohamed −4pp 21→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Ben McAdams +4pp 69→73¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Liban Mohamed −3pp 17→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Liban Mohamed −3pp 14→11¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The UT-01 Democratic Primary race shows the current leading candidate priced at 72% odds to win the primary, with a runner-up holding 23% of implied probability. This reflects market participants' assessment that the frontrunner maintains a substantial but not overwhelming advantage. The pricing is driven primarily by name recognition, existing campaign infrastructure, and demonstrated fundraising capacity relative to competitors. Secondary factors include endorsements from party establishment figures and performance in early polling or engagement metrics. The primary election date will be the definitive resolution point; as that date approaches, any shifts in voter sentiment, candidate withdrawals, or major campaign developments would likely compress or expand the current probability gap. Turnout levels and final candidate field composition remain significant unknowns that could alter the outcome.

### Key factors

- Current leader has consistently maintained polling lead across available surveys and internal campaign data through early 2026
- Polymarket pricing at 72% implies a roughly 3-to-1 odds advantage over the 23% runner-up, suggesting material but not dominant differentiation
- Candidate field composition and potential late withdrawals or consolidations could shift vote share dynamics in the final weeks before primary
- Fundraising totals and donor enthusiasm through Q2 2026 will signal campaign viability and resource availability for closing arguments
- Primary election date and early voting window will provide first direct measure of actual voter preferences versus market expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ut01-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ut01-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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