# Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1

> Closed. Last odds frozen 22 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ut1d
Updated: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $244

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liban Mohamed | 5¢ | −1pp | $244 | kalshi | /markets/will-liban-mohamed-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-u-kalshi-kxut1d-26-lmoh |
| Brian King | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brian-king-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-ut-1-kalshi-kxut1d-26-bkin |
| Caroline Gleich | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-caroline-gleich-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxut1d-26-cgle |
| Luz Escamilla | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-luz-escamilla-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-u-kalshi-kxut1d-26-lesc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | 5 |
| 2026-06-24 | 3 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates that Nate Blouin has roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the Democratic primary for Utah's 1st Congressional District. The 32% level reflects significant uncertainty about the outcome, suggesting Blouin faces meaningful competition in the race. Primary election results and candidate fundraising activity typically drive these probabilities up or down, as demonstrated performance and financial resources signal viability to primary voters. The Democratic primary election in Utah will ultimately resolve this market, though early voting patterns, endorsements, and polling data in the months leading up to the primary date would likely shift the probability meaningfully.

### Key factors

- Nate Blouin's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other Democratic primary candidates
- Endorsements from local party officials, unions, and established Democratic figures in UT-1
- Early voting or primary results from comparable Utah Democratic primaries showing typical turnout and candidate performance patterns
- Poll data or internal campaign metrics specifically measuring Blouin's support among likely Democratic primary voters
- Demographics and voting history of the UT-1 Democratic primary electorate relative to Blouin's base of support

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ut1d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ut1d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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