# Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02

> Closed. Last odds frozen 22 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/utprimary
Updated: 2026-06-25T01:20:51.401Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 47% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $26K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Lyman | 12¢ | +5pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-phil-lyman-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ut-0-kalshi-kxutprimary-03r26-plym |
| Celeste Maloy | 84¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-celeste-maloy-be-the-republican-nominee-for-u-kalshi-kxutprimary-03r26-cmal |
| Karianne Lisonbee | 10¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-karianne-lisonbee-be-the-republican-nominee-f-kalshi-kxutprimary-02r26-klis |
| Blake Moore | 83¢ | +7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-blake-moore-be-the-republican-nominee-for-ut-kalshi-kxutprimary-02r26-bmoo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 33 |
| 2026-06-11 | 44 |
| 2026-06-18 | 48 |
| 2026-06-24 | 50 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Blake Moore −13pp 97→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Phil Lyman −10pp 13→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Blake Moore +7pp 84→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Celeste Maloy +6pp 90→96¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Phil Lyman +5pp 6→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the current market assessment that Blake Moore will win the Republican primary nomination for Utah's 2nd congressional district. Moore faces competition from other potential candidates, with Karianne Lisonbee currently priced at 21 cents as the second most likely nominee. The 47-cent price reflects meaningful uncertainty about the primary outcome. Key drivers of the probability include Moore's existing political profile and fundraising capacity relative to competitors, plus the timing and composition of the actual primary field. The nomination will be determined at the Utah Republican Party's convention and/or primary election, which typically occur in the spring of election years. Any candidate withdrawals, major endorsements, or changes in candidate participation would materially shift these probabilities. The low trading volume suggests limited market liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads on these contracts.

### Key factors

- Blake Moore's current political position, prior electoral performance, and name recognition compared to Lisonbee and other declared or potential primary challengers
- The specific rules and procedures for Utah's 2nd district Republican nomination process, including convention delegate allocation and any primary thresholds
- Major endorsements or stated opposition from Utah Republican Party leadership, existing elected officials, or significant donor networks
- Whether additional candidates enter the primary race, as new entrants could fragment the vote and shift Moore's nomination probability
- Timing and outcomes of early primary contests or convention votes in neighboring districts that might indicate broader Republican voter sentiment

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/utprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=utprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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