# Uzbekistan vs. Colombia

> Colombia leads at 70%, runner-up 19% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uzbekistan-vs-colombia
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.152Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-18

## Headline

- Leader: Colombia at 70%
- Runner-up: Draw (Uzbekistan vs. Colombia) at 19%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $39

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 70¢ | +1pp | $39 | polymarket | /markets/uzbekistan-vs-colombia-colombia-polymarket-0x2f00e48e914ba6606867a6347e90c48cc1fd4da66cc196a191786637f40848e9 |
| Draw (Uzbekistan vs. Colombia) | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uzbekistan-vs-colombia-draw-uzbekistan-vs-colombia-polymarket-0x3e0e84f19abf090dae4490caf1d7f74d5cbaa5d49fa0d64bee52a42b0f71c7e4 |
| Uzbekistan | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uzbekistan-vs-colombia-uzbekistan-polymarket-0x0ef9d17aff09c873dc47a93cfb13c42ab6274b4493e022fed1f228193714540d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Colombia | Draw (Uzbekistan vs. Colombia) | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 69 | 22 | 11 |
| 2026-05-01 | 69 | 22 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 70 | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 71 | 21 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | — | 20 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | — | — | 11 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Markets are pricing Colombia as a 72% favorite over Uzbekistan in an upcoming matchup. This reflects assessments of team strength, recent form, and head-to-head history, though low trading volume on most contracts suggests limited liquidity and potentially wider uncertainty than the headline figure indicates. The outcome will depend on factors including squad availability, tactical adjustments, and performance on the day. The match itself will resolve this uncertainty once played; bettors should note the significant price discrepancy between venues (68¢ on Kalshi versus 12¢ on Polymarket for the same Colombia outcome), which suggests either different contract designs or inefficient pricing across platforms.

### Key factors

- Colombia is priced at 72% while Uzbekistan sits at 8-12% depending on venue, indicating markets view Colombia as the substantially stronger favorite based on available team data
- Low 24-hour trading volume ($0-12) on most contracts suggests limited market depth and the possibility that prices may move sharply on new information or larger trades
- Identical outcome (Colombia winner) trades at vastly different prices across exchanges (68¢ vs. 12¢), indicating potential contract specification differences or pricing inefficiency worth investigating
- Recent form, injuries, and squad composition changes in the weeks before the match would be primary drivers of probability shifts given the gap between current prices
- The match date and any official team announcements will be the decisive catalyst for resolving this market

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uzbekistan-vs-colombia
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uzbekistan-vs-colombia

## License

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